Re: GPS System Could Begin to Fail Within a Year
- From: CD <no@xxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 27 May 2009 09:02:54 +0100
Here you go BG, I'll also paste the US Air Force response mentioned at
the start.
Editor's Note: The U.S. Air Force has responded to concerns raised in
this article.
The Global Positioning System faces the possibility of failures and
blackouts, a federal watchdog agency has warned the U.S. Congress.
Mismanagement by and underinvestment by the U.S. Air Force places the
GPS at risk of failure in 2010 and beyond. The problem: Delays in
launching replacement satellites, among other things.
According to the Government Accountability Office report, "In recent
years, the Air Force has struggled to successfully build GPS
satellites within cost and schedule goals" as part of a $2 billion
modernization program.
"If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals for development of
GPS IIIA satellites, there will be an increased likelihood that in
2010, as old satellites begin to fail, the overall GPS constellation
will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level
of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to."
Considered by the GAO to be "essential to national security" the GPS
is also widely used by business and consumers and is a driver for
next-generation location-based mobile applications used with
smartphones and other devices.
"Such a gap in capability could have wide-ranging impacts on all GPS
users," the GAO report states, "though there are measures the Air
Force and others can take to plan for and minimize these impacts."
It is hard to imagine the U.S. government could allow this to happen.
Actually, that's a lie, it's easy to imagine, but there is also time
for corrective action to be taken. The first replacement satellite is
expected to be launched this November, some three years after the
original launch date. Speeding up future launches can solve the
problem, but is likely to come at a high price.
The American GPS, though the pioneering consumer satnav system, is not
alone. Russia, China, and India each have systems of their own, which
are being expanded.
The European Union's Galileo system, intended as a rival for GPS, is
expected to begin its rollout later this year.
The delay and potential failure of GPS gives these other nations the
potential to rival the U.S. in space, something the U.S. government is
unlikely to accept. The report is a black eye for the Air Force, which
developed the GPS system during the 1980s and has maintained it since.
At last count, David Coursey owned more than a dozen GPS devices and
expects his government to keep them working. He Tweets as dcoursey and
can be reached using the email form at www.coursey.com/contact.
US Air Force response:
The sky isn't falling and neither is the Global Positioning System,
the U.S. Air Force said during a Twitter news conference. "No, the GPS
will not go down," tweeted Col. Dave Buckman of the Air Force's Space
Command. "GAO points out, there is potential risk associated with a
degradation in GPS performance."
"The issue is under control. We are working hard to get out the word.
The issue is not whether GPS will stop working. There's only a small
risk we will not continue to exceed our performance standard," the Air
Force official said.
The tweet forum marked the first time Space Command has used its
Twitter page for a scheduled forum. During the session, held Wednesday
afternoon, the Air Force sought to allay fears raised by a Government
Accountability Office report critical of its management of the GPS
program.
"Agree w/ GAO thr's a potential risk, but GPS isn't falling out of the
sky--we have plans 2 mitigate risk & prevent a gap," the Air Force
officials said, in the clipped 140-character cadence of Twitter
conversation.
The GAO report predicated only an 80 percent likelihood the Air Force
would be able to maintain the full 24-satellite constellation over a
period between 2010 and 2014. Going below 24 satellites could result
in lower GPS performance, GAO said.
The danger of a GPS outage, though small, exists if the Air Force is
unable to improve its satellite replacement program. Currently years
behind, Space Command says it has plans to launch enough satellites to
keep the constellation above the 24-satellite threshold.
"We have 30+ satellites on orbit now. We'll launch another in Aug 09,
and again early 10. Going below 24 won't happen," the Air Force said,
counting on an improvement in its ability to get satellites into
space.
"We definitely need to keep this in perspective. Since 1995, GPS has
never failed to exceed performance standards."
Delays in the $5.8 billion program have occurred for a variety of
reasons, the GAO report stated. Among them is consolidation among
companies that supply GPS hardware to the Air Force.
GPS vendors have, not surprisingly, also said the reports of GPS'
possible demise have been overblown. Some customers have expressed
concern over whether it is safe to invest in GPS devices and vendors
have been quick to offer reassurance.
Bottom line: The Air Force says everything is covered, but if that had
been true all along this flap would not have occurred. Because GPS is
considered vital to national security, plus its wide use by business
and consumers, it is reasonable to expect whatever funds necessary
will be spent to keep GPS as operational as possible.
The Air Force's confident response is reasonable enough, but believing
it requires at least a small leap of faith by GPS users.
David Coursey uses GPS several times each day with his ham radio gear
and while driving. Follow him on Twitter and contact him using the
form located at www.coursey.com/contact.
On Wed, 27 May 2009 07:37:40 GMT, "Brian Gaff"
<briang1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
So why not publish an extract. I found your link went to google which wnt to.
other links that went to....
I gave up.
Brian
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