Re: Early kick off for Saturday.
- From: Dave McAuley <racebets@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 08 Nov 2008 11:51:13 +0000
batezee wrote:
Due to a ridiculously early kick off I`ve had to put in some early study,so here`s my views in brief`ish..
Wincanton
Gave up study after realising that Paul Nicholls has a strong chance of winning every bloody race?
Sandown
2,30 CALUSA CLADERA off for a year after 2 wins now with the stronger Hobbs team and getting lumpos of weight.
3.00 GRINGO is a former classy Novice from Johnsons yard,also back after a year but if nnear fit could well make a bold show @ large odds imo
3.35 ALFADORA already a Hurdle winner and not given a hard time after being badly hampered lto Has a 25% strike rate and not without a chance @ double figure odds.
Kelso
3.15 With McCains yard hitting form lately I`ll chance it with ROSIE ALL OVER.
Doncaster
12.55 16 runner maiden but ZEYADAAH is well bred and from a top yard set of connections.
1.30 HARRY PATCH made a great debut and looked to have more to come,16 runners ensure some decent odds available.
2.05 KAHARA dropped back to 10f gives Cumanis charge a great chance here.imo
2.35 I`m not a great fan of ZIDANE as he doesn`t win often but he has been running in only Group races this season and may gain some rewards today.
3.10 Irish raider MENWAAL may well make the trip pay,hold reasonable form and looks the type to be aware of.
ACROPOLIS is fitted with Blinds and may improve enough to feature.The fav PRESVIS although I am a fan seems way to short at the moment.
3.45 AXIOM of Cumani`s may figure well in this closer a nice 22 runners h`cal lol
a day to enjoy me thinks chaps *GRIN*
Good luck today Batezee...think Vela will steal the show.
Today's racing is frought with dangers and this time of year shocks happen, as you can see from the winning SP's from yesterday for example.
CH4 coverage starts off with the 2:05 at Doncaster, a fillies stakes on soft ground means that you have to go for a mix of value and potential. Les Fazzani looks a worthy favourite but hasn't won much. SUMMER'S LEASE on the other hand won well on her debut and although only finishing 3rd in a fillies handicap I think has more to give, by Pibotal she will love the ground and Spencer could and more than likely will produce her late. At 7/1 she looks a possible each-way bet in the first.
RING THE BOSS looks the ideal recruit to fences and is my pick in the 2:20 at Wincanton over Breedsbreeze who although impressive last time didn't entirely convince me at times. RTB on the other hand was impressive last time at Cheltenham despite the main rival falling and was just about the best of these over hurdles. His 8th in the Arkle was pretty good for one so relatively inexperienced compared to his main rivals and he should outclass this lot.
The 2:35 at Donny is a trappy listed contest with some usual suspects. I have to stick with JUDGE 'N JURY who is continually underestimated yet continues to improve markedly. 8/1 looks a great each-way price and this Pivotal gelding is going to prove tough to beat granted a clear passage. Luck does play a part in these races though so I will have a saver on AGAINST THE GRAIN who won the Ayr Silver Cup in heavy ground so has his ideal conditions. Will need to improve again to score here but 22/1 is a big price on one of the few that has 'optimum' conditions today, is proven at the track and comes here off a decent win.
The Elite Hurdle gives us a chance to see if KATCHIT can continue on his upward spiral. This track round here is ideal for him as he showed when destroying Blythe Knight in the Kingwell Hurdle last season. That rival has a big weight pull today, literally a stone better off for a 5 length beating. I don't think Takeroc has ever won over British hurdles although think he won a few in France. On his chase mark he will prove tough to beat but it doesn't always work like that back over the smaller obstacles and he could be run off his feet round here. The bet has to be with KATCHIT though who is actually a value bet with Takeroc a surprise favourite to me. This will be Blythe's Knight best chance of beating KATCHIT and he may just do it but I have to stick with the Champ who will handle the ground (won on heavy on flat).
The November Handicap at 3:10 at Doncaster is very trappy. One that I did like from the off is NIGHT CRESCENDO at 16/1. Jim Crowley has had a great year and rides out for Amanda Perrett here whose record in these types of big handicaps can be under-estimated. This won has won 2 tough Ascot handicaps and although the ground is likely to be less than ideal I think looks overpriced.
The other high in my ratings is Dunaskin and although he is massive odds and there are ground doubts I still think looks overpriced at 66/1.
The other bet in the race is MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR who is in form, will handle the ground no problem and who has won over c&d. This race will take a bit of getting in this ground and there are no doubts on that front with this well bred Sadler's Wells gelding out of a Darshaan mare. 12/1 looks fair.
At Wincanton at 3:25 we have the Badger Ales, a race I find tricky to find the winner of sometimes. This year looks trappy but ISLAND FLYER is the one that I have down as the likeliest winner. 3/1 looks very short but he does have the looks of a decent 3-miler chaser and was very impressive in his novice season. Nudge and Nurdle could show better form than recently on this softer ground and looks big at 33/1.
The final handicap at Doncaster at 3:45 is tough with the draw likely to play a part. There are 3 I like. The first is MEDICI PEARL who will love underfoot conditions and would be a popular winner. 12/1 is fair enough price and a low draw in 3.
The 2nd I like is COMMANDER CAVE although I am not sure how he will handle the much softer ground. He bounced back to a bit of form last time behing Gallantry and Hannon has to be feared in these races. This looks his number 1 contender and he is one of my high ones in stall 22.
The final one on my lis is LUCKY DANCE drawn in the middle, won very well at Newmarket last time but is not the most consistent but 14/1 is worth a small e/w.
Good Luck all
.
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