Re: Ref. If we beat Marseille....

Corn wrote:
On Dec 10, 11:18 am, lescor <lescorb...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


Opinion can be random and made with a pin, but it can also be
based upon evidence, .....known facts. In racing we call it
form, and that is mainly a deep assessment of past performance.
This is what I meant by betting opinion having a basis.


But you don't know their basis, do you, Les? That is what this is
about. You have seen the numbers, you then assume that the bookies are
making the same assumptions about Rafa as yourself. Doctors ... the
reasoning behind an opinion is known. Bookies ... you don't know their
reasoning, you just know their end result, their ranking. That's it,
ok?


LOL ....no, it is not OK because it is not accurate. Bookies opinions are seldom, if ever, based upon guesswork. They know their field, just like doctors, and they are extremely good in it............too bloody good for most of us. And yes, it seems that they are making the same assumptions about Raffa as myself, rather than yours, otherwise he would be 6-1 rather than 100-1.

The specific basis is not really relevant. It is enough that they exist. The "numbers" you mention arrive from opinion.
The market reflects the opinion. The question I put to you has nothing to do with how accurate the opinion is ( although it is most often pretty close) but why should it reflect Raffa in such a poor light? Here, is is a genius....out there he is a rank outsider......why?

Markets are not static. They reflect opinion. If a layer has overpriced one he will be made to pay. The price is taken and taken again until it shortens rapidly. It is for this reason that it is a valid reflection of the general view.

I really cannot put it more simply. If the outside world saw Raffa in the same light as you he would not be such a big price. It really is as easy as that. You say that the market view is not an accurate assessment.....fine, but it still exists and poses that question of' why not Raffa,' who is just as available as most of the other 12 listed above him , but is viewed as a no hoper amongst impartial judges?

Why is the betting market view so close to the view of football pundits. You think he is great but they never mention him. Why?




















In short, opinion can be well founded. This is why we have
doctors and barristers. They form opinions based upon
evidence. Not that difficult is it?


What is the evidence for the bookies, then, Les? Do you know? What did
they base their opinion on?

Much the same as when making an anti post book for the Grand National. The relative qualities of the possible contendors.
What else is there? Plus a bit of inside information on who those with influence see as the best candidates possibly.



Is it the substitutions he made in the Milan final? Is it the changes
he made against Portsmouth recently? Because if you look at his actual
TRACK RECORD (you should check it out sometime) there is nothing to
make him less attractive than, say, Wenger or Fergie. Unless you don't
rate winning things like La Liga. Twice.


I would guess that there are several reasons. Probably not the best man manager for a squad which meets so infrequently, one which needs a TEAM identity urgently. A man who seems too unsure about his formations so that he is prone to many changes, something the England side have suffered with for decades.
His illogical rotation policy ( I am not alone) which suggests stubborn theory before common sense, and his average tactical awareness which makes him slow to make match changes soon enough. OK, but far from outstanding maybe?

I have no opinion on his Spanish wins, other than that they look fine. I just don't know enough about the general quality there when he won them. As far as his time with Liverpool is concerned his record is OK, but he is at a fine rich club.
Trophies are in the cupboard and it looks great on his record
and he deserves credit for getting so far in those competitions, but does it make him a tactical master?

What do you think of penalty shootouts? Does the managers talents effect those or do you, like most of us, consider them a lottery? Raffas reputation with the fans is mainly built on a CL final win, a CL final place, and an FA Cup win but all three required penalty shootouts. Good luck to him, but we do know that a couple of lucky goalkeeping guesses could have resulted in all being lost don't we? So maybe his reputation is not so well established as it seems and good fortune has played a serious part.

I just hope it stays with him until the FA Cup final.

Could it simply be that the odds are so high because the possibility
of him leaving Liverpool is in actuality very, very slim? Could it be?

Certainly not. They do not enter into it with any of those listed. Choices first....availability second. The offer of 4 or 5 million a year does the job. Right now no top ten Prem manager is more likely to become available than Raffa.


I do not suggest that the Emgland job market is typical of
all, but there are reasons for the way it has formed. It still
contains offers for non-runners,like Wenger, hoping for some
mug money, but in the main it reflects opinion based upon
probability, which in itself reflects the collective opinions
of punters, bookmakers and the media.


How do you know Wenger is a non-runner? Just because he said so? Since
when did that count?

He has said so too many times before.He is one of those on the FA list to ask for opinions, as is Fergie.


So your implication that between opinion/conjecture and
certainty there lies a void where reason plays no part is a
bit silly isn't it? Particularly as you will take actions
based upon reasoned probability dozens of times every day.


Do you know the reasoning behind the odds? If you don't know the
reasoning, which I would think you don't, you have no idea why the
odds are set as they are.

I have already told you. Who is most likely to be asked and why.....or....who is least likely to be asked and why.

There are no contradictions in my comments. You would prefer
to imagine there are, rather than face the question I asked.
However the market is formed, why is there such a massive
difference between Raffas price and the others? Why is there
this difference between how his fans view his talents and how
they are seen elsewhere?


You are making this "massive difference" up. WHO, except yourself, is
saying that Rafa is just a mediocre manager? Some links, please, and
please, please don't use your stupid betting odds again.

Links? what the hell have links got to do with anything. Those asked about the job simply do not mention Raffa as a possibility. That is enough. I appreciate that you do not understand the betting market , but it seems to have the same view. This is not a coincidence.





If you honestly feel that betting markets do not really
reflect informed opinion you should jump in and take that
100-1. There is a small fortune to be made.


Why don't you put ten thousand quid on Rafa, Les?

I have had almost £500 on him to win the FA Cup. That is as far as my support for him goes. The side must have a fair chance and it is still possible that this might turn out to be the only possible target. If so, and given a decent draw, Pools price will shorten bigtime from the present 6-1 which will allow me to lay them at a profit.



LC























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