Re: Ref. If we beat Marseille....

On Dec 10, 11:18 am, lescor <lescorb...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Opinion can be random and made with a pin, but it can also be
based upon evidence, .....known facts. In racing we call it
form, and that is mainly a deep assessment of past performance.
This is what I meant by betting opinion having a basis.

But you don't know their basis, do you, Les? That is what this is
about. You have seen the numbers, you then assume that the bookies are
making the same assumptions about Rafa as yourself. Doctors ... the
reasoning behind an opinion is known. Bookies ... you don't know their
reasoning, you just know their end result, their ranking. That's it,
ok?

In short, opinion can be well founded. This is why we have
doctors and barristers. They form opinions based upon
evidence. Not that difficult is it?

What is the evidence for the bookies, then, Les? Do you know? What did
they base their opinion on?

Is it the substitutions he made in the Milan final? Is it the changes
he made against Portsmouth recently? Because if you look at his actual
TRACK RECORD (you should check it out sometime) there is nothing to
make him less attractive than, say, Wenger or Fergie. Unless you don't
rate winning things like La Liga. Twice.

Could it simply be that the odds are so high because the possibility
of him leaving Liverpool is in actuality very, very slim? Could it be?

I do not suggest that the Emgland job market is typical of
all, but there are reasons for the way it has formed. It still
contains offers for non-runners,like Wenger, hoping for some
mug money, but in the main it reflects opinion based upon
probability, which in itself reflects the collective opinions
of punters, bookmakers and the media.

How do you know Wenger is a non-runner? Just because he said so? Since
when did that count?

So your implication that between opinion/conjecture and
certainty there lies a void where reason plays no part is a
bit silly isn't it? Particularly as you will take actions
based upon reasoned probability dozens of times every day.

Do you know the reasoning behind the odds? If you don't know the
reasoning, which I would think you don't, you have no idea why the
odds are set as they are.

There are no contradictions in my comments. You would prefer
to imagine there are, rather than face the question I asked.
However the market is formed, why is there such a massive
difference between Raffas price and the others? Why is there
this difference between how his fans view his talents and how
they are seen elsewhere?

You are making this "massive difference" up. WHO, except yourself, is
saying that Rafa is just a mediocre manager? Some links, please, and
please, please don't use your stupid betting odds again.

If you honestly feel that betting markets do not really
reflect informed opinion you should jump in and take that
100-1. There is a small fortune to be made.

Why don't you put ten thousand quid on Rafa, Les?
.

Relevant Pages

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