Re: Windies touring squad

In message <1178442413.150163.44180@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Gavin Cawley <gcc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> writes
On May 6, 5:46 am, Robert Henderson <phi...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
In message <Xns992763CFC974Drdngemailyahooc...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Richard
Dixon <rdngem...@xxxxxxxxxxx> writes

>Robert Henderson <phi...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in news:UkP+
>9GFgEBPGF...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

>> Oh dear, the unquestioning mind of the intellectual mediocrity. What
>> does the claim, made often in the media, of the warmest, coldest etc
>> since records began in 1659 mean to you? Do you think that official
>> records have been kept using the same means in the same circumstances
>> for 350 years? RH

>And clearly you've never heard of the Central England Temperature series
>developed by Manley in 1974

Cobbled together from a myriad of sources and measuring techniques.
Utterly worthless. RH

I take it you read the papers by Manly before writing that?

A myriad of measuring techniques? RH, they are called "thermometers"
and rely on thermal expansion of liquids, a very well understood piece
of physics that has not changed since 1659. Romer in the early 1700s
proposed a common temperature scale fixed on the freezing temperature
of brine and boiling point of water, so it is perfectly reasonable to
expect thermometers to be tolerably well callibrated from the mid
1700s at worst. The fact that the individual time series overlap
allows a degree of cross-calibration. Note that Manly is aware of the
difficulties involved and gives caveats in his paper.

Dear oh dear. Variation in the instruments, variation in the expertise of those taking the measurements, variation in the places where temperature is taken, variation in period in which readings are taken, variation in the environment they are taken over time (most readings in the past were taken in rural circumstances: most in the past 100 years in urban circumstances). RH

The CET is an area average time series (which is more useful for
climatology as it is not overly affected by the effects of geography
on local climate), therefore it neccesarily involves a myriad of
sources. Also the averaging process will attenuate the variance
component of the errors of individial measured temperature time
series, having written an essay on probability theory, I'm surprised
you didn't know that. Note that as the CET is a monthly time series
there is a large degree of temporal averaging as well as spatial,
which will also attenuate errors in the individual sources.

Lastly, the paper I cited considers the uncertainty involved in
deriving the time series, perhaps you will find that this April was
the warmest on record even taking this uncertainty into account.

>and studied, used and analysed by many
>afterwards. Or maybe climatology is another of your specialities in your
>broad degree course.

>Richard

--
Robert Henderson
Blair Scandal website:http://www.geocities.com/blairscandal/
Personal website:http://www.anywhere.demon.co.uk



--
Robert Henderson
Blair Scandal website: http://www.geocities.com/ blairscandal/
Personal website: http://www.anywhere.demon.co.uk
.

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