Today's model interpretation (31/07/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Monday.
Issued 0505z, 31st July 2008

It looks like there'll be a settled spell on Tuesday and/or Wednesday as a weak ridge moves eastwards. Thereafter a trough will move slowly across the UK, bringing rain to all areas.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
SE'lies cover the UK, which lies to the east of complex low pressure. By tomorrow low pressure covers England and Wales, with ESE'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Saturday sees SSW'lies for all, with low pressure west of Scotland. The low crosses Scotland on Sunday, leading to SSW'lies for all.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a weak ridge over Ireland with the jet heading SE'wards over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's also a NW'ly flow, as is the case with MetO and ECM. GEM has westerlies aloft with a trough to the west.
At the surface GFS has a col and light winds for all. Light westerlies cover the UK with MetO due to a ridge to the south. There's a col with ECM and also with GEM.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM shows a ridge over England and Wales with southerlies for all. Southerlies and SE'lies cover the UK on day 7 as low pressure persists to the west.
A ridge covers England and Wales on day 6 with GFS, while Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under southerlies. A trough moves eastwards on day 7 with southyerlies and SSE'lies as a result.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM brings southerlies with low pressure over Ireland. The low crosses Scotland on day 9, leading to WSW'lies. Day 10 sees WNW'lies as the low moves away to the east.
SW'lies affect the UK on day 8 with GFS, as a trough moves NE'wards. Another trough moves in from the west on day 9, with southerlies. By day 10 low pressure covers Scotland with a secondary low south of Ireland. Southerlies cover much of the UK as a result.

Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres)
The ensembles show that after today's warmth temperatures will return to near average values.

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Relevant Pages

  • Todays model interpretation (20/06/08)
    ... The latter half of the working week will see a NW/SE split, with low pressure to the NW bringing plenty of rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland. ... A col covers the UK tomorrow, followed by southerlies for England and Wales on Sunday as low pressure deepens to the west and a trough moves northwards. ...
    (uk.sci.weather)
  • Todays model interpretation (23/05/08)
    ... The high moves eastwards and low pressure moves NW'wards and deepens to the south of the UK on day 6, resulting in strong to gale NE'lies for most. ... A ridge covers Scotland and Northern Ireland, with ENE'lies for much of the UK. ... A trough moves northwards on day 6, with southerlies to the south and easterlies to the north. ...
    (uk.sci.weather)
  • Todays model interpretation (30/06/09)
    ... Showers or longer spells of rain are likely on Sunday and into next week, with low pressure nearby. ... The European model brings southerlies across the UK, ahead of a trough to the west. ... The trough moves over Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 6, ... A slack low lies to the west, with a secondary low over Scotland and Northern Ireland. ...
    (uk.sci.weather)
  • Todays model interpretation (28/07/08)
    ... Saturday looks like being a wet day for much of the UK as a low crosses Scotland. ... Low pressure moves up from the WSW tomorrow, leading to stronger easterlies for most. ... Southerlies cover the UK on Wednesday as low pressure deepens to the west. ... MetO has SW'lies over the UK with a shallow low to the west and ECM brings southerlies and SSE'lies due to a deeper low to the west. ...
    (comp.sys.psion.misc)
  • Todays model interpretation (16/09/06)
    ... A deep low lies to the west with strong SW'lies for all. ... The low fills at T+144 with southerlies persisting. ... NE'wards and by day 7 a weak ridge covers Scotland, ... NOGAPS brings low pressure to the west of Scotland, ...
    (uk.sci.weather)