Re: Devon Thunder

On Jul 2, 5:51 pm, "Jon O'Rourke" <jon_orou...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dawlish" <pjg...@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2008 4:49 PM
Subject: Re: Devon Thunder
You may have got something in East Devon Jon, but the rest of us have
had very little. There was a shower in Paignton this morning, but
nothing else in the South Hams and it's been dry all day in Dawlish.
My water collection collection of plastic stiff has collected
nothing!!

the real development has been over Mid-Wales rather than the SW, I
think and some locally heavy rain, nothing special and hardly any
'sferics over the UK. I think the weather warning was justified for
Wales and Northern Ireland. I feel it wasn't for the SW. Was anything
down here "severe"?

Paul

Well, there's been quite a number of sferics over the SW, Wales and Ireland
so I'd disagree with "hardly any" plus some very heavy returns on the radar.

As for the warnings, of course you're entitled to your opinion but given
that they don't expire until 2200L then a judgement can't really be made
from a verification point of view at least until the data from all the
various sites covered by the warnings is in. Thus far I note that Liscombe
had 5mm in the hour to 14Z and St. Athan 10.6mm which demonstrates the
potential for the flash warning criteria for heavy rain being methttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/guide/key_warnings.html- and that's
only looking at data from a limited number of sites in a highly convective
situation.

Also bear in mind these warnings were issued before any developments took
hold and based on considerably more information than you or I have access
to.

Jon.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hi Jon,

I agree that no forecast should be judged until outcome. It's now
10.00 and the severe weather warning has been lifted. You said,
earlier, that you'd had 2 claps of thunder and 2 spots of rain. We had
none of either. Some areas had some heavy rain; most SW areas stayed
dry of got a little bit wet. Severe in the SW? I would argue no and it
would assert that it would be hard to argue against that, for the SW.
It's by no means the first time, even this summer, that such warnings
have been issued when the subsequent weather has not been "severe"
and,OK, IMO, didn't look as if it would be "severe" from the limited
information that I had access to. Whatever extra information the MetO
had available caused a "severe" weather warning to be issued when the
subsequent weather was simply not severe. Was anyone flooded in the
SW? Have there been any reports of the heavy rain causing more
problems than puddles and a lot of people having to put their
windscreen wipers on fast, or, if they were out, a number of people
may have, unfortunately, got wet?

The argument that "well wouldn't you rather be warned, than not
warned" is so risky and disparaging to people's perceptions, because
it makes people feel that "severe" weather is really any weather
that's slightly worse than normal. I feel that the MetOs
interpretation of "severe" is based on saving public face, just in
case it happens to be really severe; then they can say; "well don't
say you weren't warned"........as people drown, or freeze to death,
because this was just one warning too far and they decided it wouldn't
happen because it normally doesn't.

Are there ANY reports of sever weather in the SW. If it was a "good
job a weather warning was issued for the SW, today", I would argue
that whenever rain is forecast, there should be a weather advisory/
warning/flash/whatever issued, as someone could skid and die, or catch
a chill.

We need a re-think of the whole system based upon a publicity drive,
from the metO to educate the public about what really is severe
weather. What really could cause them problems and what do they just
have to be slightly more careful, or less stupid, than normal with.

The present system lulls people into thinking the "severe" weather
warnings could actually be a waste of time, because most (and I mean
most) presage weather which is nothing like "severe". When the really
severe weather comes, the 1 in 50 yr storm or greater, or the blizzard
that maroons people, the warning system runs the risk of being ignored
because of the number of times the MetO has cried "wolf", IMO it's a
dog's breakfast Jon. If it isn't, why is it not?

Paul
.

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