Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.
- From: Dawlish <pjgno1@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 15 Jun 2008 11:37:44 -0700 (PDT)
Some very interesting gfs charts today and for the last couple of
days. There's been enough consistency in the gfs output for me to
forecast that 10 days from now, on the 25th June, the UK weather will
be zonal, with pressure being higher over Europe and a decreasing
pressure gradient towards Northern Scotland. The Atlantic will be
holding sway and the weather will be approaching from the West. Detail
is a zonal spell is impossible to forecast at that distance and there
could, just as easily, be a ridge of high pressure on the 25th, as a
Westward moving front, but ridges will be transitory and they will be
forecast to move eAstwards as low pressures approach from the West
On the run-up to the 25th, the weather will be unsettled from midweek,
this week, but as a low pressure settles to the SW and pushes towards
us, next weekend, it could drag up some very warm air ahead of it. If
the present charts verify, we could see the first 30C of the year
Sunday/Monday of next week and perhaps some spectacular thunderstorms
if the plume of warm air being dragged up from Spain reaches us. A
Spanish plume, rather than a North African one, this time. It's also
possible that it could be pushed East, but temperatures of 35C could
be experienced in the near continent, Northern France, Benelux
countries, or Germany late next weekend and into the start of the week
after.
After that, the weather in the UK will again turn unsettled, with the
odd transitory ridge, for the UK as the 25th approaches.
Both the plume and the unsettled weather to follow have been on the
gfs for 5 runs. A hot solstice and a wet first week of Wimbledon?? 80%
chance for me.
Paul
.
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