Re: WeatherAction forecast issued 16OCT2007: overall review [Long] - more comment
- From: Weatherlawyer <Weatherlawyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 29 Nov 2007 09:42:05 -0800 (PST)
On Nov 29, 5:26 pm, "Jim Smith" <g0...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
OK have thought about this further...
How can you predict the solar particle and magnetic effects?
Piers Corbyn is forecasting solar particle and magnetic effects?
recurrent coronal holes can be forecast to return as the sun spins on it's
axis once every 21 days... but major solar flares (which are most unlikely
to occur at a time of zero sunspots i.e. most days since early September
this year) are not that predictable, especially some weeks ahead. Sunspot
groups form at random at all stages of the solar cycle and these cannot be
predicted.
2 words in that paragraph stand out as suspect: "not" and "cannot".
If you can see your way to rephrasing the above to contain a lot less
negativity, you might be able to understand a little more again.
One can make a prediction of the general shape of solar activity over a
period of several years but even now, no-one really knows how big or small
the next solar peak in the early 2010's will be.
Evidently someone begs to differ.
Solar activity has been very low in recent months (source:http://dxlc.com/solar/: solar flux levels at or below 70 is rock
bottom,
sunspot number zero on most days), and magnetic activity has been slightly
elevated at times due to coronal holes, but nothing in any way major)
But what if the actual processes that Mr Corbyn is researching isn't
actual sunspots? Suppose some of what he says are just a blind to put
you off the chase?
It will be interesting to see what he comes out with when we have plenty of
sunspots and solar flares once again.
It would be interesting to know what happens or what he thinks happens
when he sees a "spike" or whatever he calls them.
You really must try to distinguish the stars from the skies if you
intend to pick on things. Otherwise you will find yourself discussing
background noise and little else of any importance.
.
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- From: Martin Rowley
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