Next two week's weather beginning 26/03/06
- From: "Will Hand" <will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 09:45:16 -0000
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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.
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Summary valid for Sunday 26/03/06 to Saturday 01/04/06/
TOI (time of issue) Friday 24/03/06 0930 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Very high confidence for rain in all areas of the UK next week. Moderate
confidence in more detail.
On Sunday and Monday a complex area of low pressure will give fresh to strong
south or southwesterly winds with rain at times in all areas with largest
amounts in the west and north. Some drier and brighter interludes but these will
be interrupted with showers, some of which are likely to be heavy. Generally
mild with temperatures up to at least 15 deg C in the south.
During Tuesday after a bright start in the east a cold front will move east
across the UK bringing a band of heavy rain possibly accompanied by hail and
thunder. Following the rain it will turn colder with some showers which could
turn wintry on northern hills later in the day as south or southwest winds swing
into the west.
Wednesday looks like being a colder day everywhere with moderate to fresh
westerly winds bringing sunny spells and showers. Some showers likely to be of
hail and still wintry for a time over northern hills. Eastern areas will have
the least number of showers with more sunshine.
The end of the week looks like turning warmer with temperatures close to normal
as winds turn more southwesterly with sunny spells and bands of rain moving
northeast. Most rain in the west and north.
Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for the
unsettled spell to give way to mainly fine, dry and warm weather in the south
but remaining changeable in the north.
Will (Chief forecaster)
Last week's forecast below as usual
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Summary valid for Sunday 19/03/06 to Saturday 25/03/06/
TOI (time of issue) Friday 17/03/06 0930 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Well as all forecasters know forecasting in March can be really hard and error
prone due to potential large differences in temperature near the surface. The
sun is increasingly strong now but to counter that, polar airmasses are still
very cold. Last week's forecast issued by Haytor was the worst cock-up I have
ever made, it couldn't have been more wrong could it? It was a bad judgement
call, at the time models were undecided between the Azores high dominating or
the Scandinavian, on balance it looked like the Azores and I went along with it,
in hindsight a bad call.
This week's forecast also has a lot of potential for error as the situation is
far from straightforward. So this forecast is issued with only moderate
confidence at best.
On Sunday a weakening occlusion will bring cloud and some patchy rain south into
England, many places dry though. The strong to gale east wind in the south
should ease later in the day. Snow showers will get into Shetland and Orkney
later in the day in a strengthening northerly wind. Temperatures generally below
normal with most sunshine in the west. Frost overnight.
On Monday over Scotland sleet and snow showers will continue in the north and
east in moderate to fresh north or northeast winds. Over England and Wales a
weak cold front will bring some patchy rain south-westwards with perhaps a
little sleet or snow or high ground. Light to moderate northeast winds. SW
England and Wales could have a dry and bright day before the rain and hill
sleet/snow arrives. Generally rather cold.
Tuesday could well be a fine day over most areas under a ridge of high pressure.
Still a lot of cloud and one or two showers dotted around but chance of some
sunny spells after an early frost in places. Possibly some rain and snow getting
into northern Scotland later. Temperatures still rather cold with frost
returning in the evening under clear skies.
I'm not going to attempt any detail for the rest of the week as things get very
tricky. The trend on Wednesday will be for cold air and a cold front to push
down from the north into Scotland bringing sleet and snow. Meanwhile warm
tropical air will be pushing up from the Bay of Biscay into southern Britain
bringing rain. On Thursday these two airmasses will meet bringing the potential
for a slow moving band of rain, sleet and snow with possibly some very heavy
falls of snow in the north. Obviously the meeting place is crucial and that is
where the problem lies at this range. The most likely place is northern England.
So to the south, mild and wet with rain at times and southerly winds. To the
north, cold with sleet and snow showers in east or northeast winds and in the
frontal zone, a spell of heavy rain, sleet or snow.
On Friday and Saturday the trend will be for the cold air to win and push south
as a weakening band of rain, sleet and snow with the weather then turning drier,
colder and brighter from the north.
Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for cold weather to
persist in the north but warmer at times in the south with more rain, sleet and
snow.
Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 18th/19th March 2006.
Light snow is now falling on Dartmoor but it shouldn't amount to anything more
than a dusting. A very cold weekend is in prospect with a strong to gale
easterly wind on Saturday, decreasing on Sunday. Wind chill will be significant
high up. Mainly dry with just a few outbreaks of drizzle or light snow. This
will be the last winter walking forecast that will be issued this season. I hope
that everyone has enjoyed their winter walking and sledging and here's to some
lovely Spring snow scenes and then a beautiful summer in southern England's only
remaining wilderness area.
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" You cannot count your life a success unless you can find one person who says
that they are happier because you were born "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto: will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
www: www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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