Re: What's all the fuss about ...

After 25 years of living in Devon I can conclude that almost without
exception most semi-serious snow events have occurred in recent times
towards the end of the winter, which is early February in Devon. Model runs
over the coming days will be most interesting to follow. I agree that there
is a MOD risk of some fairly serious conditions in the south.

That being said February will have to be *really* cold for the temperature
anomally across the whole winter (Dec - Feb) to be negative.

December was about average across the UK as a whole. Looks like January will
be +ve, perhaps significantly so, with the real cold air only setting in
right towards the end of the month. (We are currently running a +1.7 24-hour
temperature anomally in the South Hams). Therefore for the whole winter to
be -ve we will need a really chilly and protracted February. Look forward to
seeing how this unfolds.

I still think that the memorable feature of this winter will be the dryness
as opposed to the protracted cold. Currently in January we have a rainfall
deficit of 132.8mm in the South Hams!

Richard.


"Will Hand" <will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:dqrecg$gk6$1$8300dec7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> "Martin Rowley" <booty.weatherREMOVE_THIS_NOW@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
> message
> news:ha7Af.5092$mf2.4221@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Whilst idly looking through one of the books on my shelf - I came across
>> this which nicely sums up (for those that aren't aware), what all the
>> fuss is about re: the potential cold easterly towards the end of next
>> week: still a lot to happen of course before we get there, but the
>> models do seems to be coming into line now with a threat of a polar
>> continental type setting in.
>>
>> From: The Climate of the British Isles, Chandler and Gregory, 1976
>>
>> " If the pressure is high over Scandinavia, perhaps with an extension
>> towards Iceland, and low in the Azores - Spain - Biscay region, easterly
>> airflow from the Continent will affect most of the British Isles. The
>> nature of the weather depends largely on which of the pressure systems
>> is dominant and on the curvature of the isobars over the country.
>>
>> In winter, the easterly flow is likely to be very cold, especially when
>> the sea-track is short as in south-east England. (<snip bit about 1st
>> Feb 1956, when very low daytime maxima were recorded>) Further north,
>> the greater width of the North Sea allows more warming of the air and
>> slightly higher temperatures. Warming over the sea also leads to
>> instability, and showers of snow and sleet are common along the east
>> coast, especially in areas like Thanet and East Anglia, often
>> accompanied by strong winds in the Straits of Dover and below freezing
>> temperatures.
>>
>> Further west there are normally few if any showers and the longest hours
>> of sunshine and highest temperatures commonly recorded in the Western
>> Isles. The most widespread and prolonged snowfalls in southern England
>> usually occur when depressions over France and Biscay push frontal
>> systems northwards which then become quasi-stationary before dying out
>> or retreating away southwards again. Frequently the forward and
>> subsequent retrogressive movements are caused by a depression moving
>> along the front.
>>
>> With a weather pattern of this type, mild air from the south may spread
>> into Cornwall where temperatures may be 8°C higher than in the cold
>> easterly flow north of the front. "
>>
>
> Hi Martin I'm getting a tad excited now on the prospects. What I hinted at
> a
> couple of weeks ago could well come off. In the situation you described
> above
> snow depth at Haytor would have to be measured in feet rather than cms !
>
> We shall see, but the risk of a devastating snowfall somewhere in England
> in the
> next two weeks is not zero.
>
> Will.
> --
>
> " Ah yet another day to enjoy "
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
>
> mailto: will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> www:
> www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
>
> DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
> and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
>


.

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