Re: Next week's weather beginning 22/01/06
- From: "Gary \(Torquay\)" <gary@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 21:53:31 +0000 (UTC)
Thanks for that Will :)
No snow to break up my allotment soil then?
Gary
Torquay
"Will Hand" <will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:dqovpk$c3t$1$8300dec7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> ================================================================================
> ===
>
> This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
> the
> privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
> unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
> whatsoever
> for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
> of
> freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
> wish to
> share freely with others.
>
> ================================================================================
> ===
>
> Summary valid for Sunday 22/01/06 to Saturday 28/01/06/
> TOI (time of issue) Thursday 19/01/06 2100 UK local time
>
> This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
> FAX,
> and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
>
> Confidence is high that mainly dry weather will become established over
> the UK
> next week as pressure effectively builds from the east. Gradually turning
> colder
> and possibly (30% chance) very cold for a time in the SE at the end of the
> week.
> Confidence low to moderate for detail.
>
> On Sunday and Monday Scotland and Northern and parts of northern England
> look
> like staying mild with moderate to fresh SW winds bringing spells of rain
> and
> drizzle. The rest of England and Wales mainly dry with lighter winds and
> temperatures close to normal. Some sunny intervals but cloud amounts
> variable
> with frost and fog patches at night.
>
> On Tuesday northern areas should turn colder and gradually turn mainly dry
> from
> the south. However, the northern Isles will have sleet and snow showers in
> a
> brisk NW wind. Elsewhere in the north winds turning lighter. The rest of
> the UK
> will be dry and rather cold with frost and fog at night and light winds.
> Fog
> possible lingering well into the day in a few places and generally turning
> rather dull with low cloud and drizzle in places. Temperatures just below
> normal
> but very cold where any fog lingers.
>
> Staying mostly dry and cold on Wednesday and Thursday, again with frost
> and fog
> at night with mainly light winds. Some freezing fog persisting all day in
> places. During Thursday a cold and brisk east wind could set in in
> southern
> areas making it feel raw. Cloud amounts variable on these two days, but
> generally a lot of cloud, particularly in the east.
>
> On Friday and Saturday, the high pressure regime should persist with the
> possibility of a fresh to strong east wind bringing snow flurries into
> England
> and Wales. Obviously at this stage details on amounts etc are difficult to
> predict but the signal is there for some wintry weather, particularly in
> southern areas at the end of the week. Staying cold generally with daytime
> maxima above freezing. However, there is a 30% risk of very cold air with
> sub-zero daytime maxima getting into SE England for a while.
>
> Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for the
> cold
> theme to continue but probably turning less cold after the weekend
> 28th/29th.
> Trend for high pressure and driest weather to be located to north of UK
> with
> easterly winds bringing a mixture of rain, sleet and snow to eastern and
> southern areas. Later in the week Atlantic frontal systems could well
> encroach
> from the SW bringing widespread rain, sleet and hill snow into England and
> Wales.
>
> Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
> weekend of 21st/22nd January 2006.
>
> Dry with sunny spells sums up the weekend. Frost at night in low-lying
> areas and
> temperatures around normal with day maxes in the range 4-7 deg C depending
> on
> altitude. No snow, with freezing levels above the summits. Light winds.
> Excellent walking conditions on an unusually dry moor for the time of
> year.
> Apologies for the dreadful forecast last Saturday, the front moved on east
> far
> quicker than we anticipated. C'est la vie! Now 10 days since the last snow
> melted on Dartmoor, this mild snow-less weather cannot last.
>
> Will Hand (Chief forecaster)
>
> (Last week's forecast below as usual).
>
> ================================================================================
> Summary valid for Sunday 15/01/06 to Saturday 21/01/06/
> TOI (time of issue) Thursday 12/01/06 1800 UK local time
>
> This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
> FAX,
> and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
>
> Confidence on general evolution of this forecast is moderate at 60% but
> low for
> timings.
>
> During Sunday, Monday and Tuesday an upper trough will be disrupting close
> to
> the UK bringing frontal systems very slowly eastwards. This means spells
> of rain
> and a lot of cloud in all areas. Winds fresh to strong south to southwest
> but
> turning lighter westerly as the rain clears eastwards on Tuesday.
> Temperatures
> close to normal but cold enough for some sleet and snow on high ground in
> the
> north, especially on Monday.
>
> Later on Tuesday and on Wednesday a powerful west to northwest jet stream
> in the
> Atlantic will drive frontal systems across the North Sea into the
> continent
> introducing a spell of mild and changeable weather for the rest of the
> week in
> the UK. So rain at times with fresh to strong SW winds. Possible turning
> colder
> again towards next weekend as yet another upper trough disrupts bringing
> wet and
> very windy weather to all parts.
>
> Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for the
> unsettled
> weather to continue with temperatures around normal. Rain in all areas
> with hill
> snow in colder interludes and strong winds.
>
> Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
> weekend of 15/16th January 2006.
>
> I hope everyone enjoyed the snowy, wintry conditions on Dartmoor last
> weekend.
> The snow line was 280m asl precisely as predicted, although there was more
> snow
> on Sunday than expected (4cm above 500m asl on Ryders Hill in south moor)
> and
> less than expected on Saturday. But all in all a nice weekend. Not so good
> this
> coming weekend I'm afraid. Rain at times on both days with a freshening
> south to
> southwest wind turning strong to gale on Sunday. Hill fog at times above
> 300m
> asl. Only real chance of wintry precipitation is for a bit of sleet or wet
> snow
> above 550m asl on Sunday with freezing levels above the summits. Maximum
> temperatures generally 4-7 deg C above 250m asl depending on altitude.
>
> Will Hand (Chief forecaster)
>
> =============================================================================
>
> Nervous cheers, :-)
>
> Will (Chief forecaster USW/HMO)
> --
>
> " Ah yet another day to enjoy "
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
>
> mailto: will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> www:
> www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
>
> DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
> and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
.
- References:
- Next week's weather beginning 22/01/06
- From: Will Hand
- Next week's weather beginning 22/01/06
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