Re: Next week's weather beginning 15/01/06




"Will Hand" <will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:dq63jn$2c5$1$8300dec7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
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====
> ===
>
> This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
the
> privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
> unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
whatsoever
> for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
of
> freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
wish to
> share freely with others.
>
>
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====
> ===
>
>
>
>
> Summary valid for Sunday 15/01/06 to Saturday 21/01/06/
> TOI (time of issue) Thursday 12/01/06 1800 UK local time
>
> This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
> and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
>
> Confidence on general evolution of this forecast is moderate at 60% but
low for
> timings.
>
> During Sunday, Monday and Tuesday an upper trough will be disrupting close
to
> the UK bringing frontal systems very slowly eastwards. This means spells
of rain
> and a lot of cloud in all areas. Winds fresh to strong south to southwest
but
> turning lighter westerly as the rain clears eastwards on Tuesday.
Temperatures
> close to normal but cold enough for some sleet and snow on high ground in
the
> north, especially on Monday.
>
> Later on Tuesday and on Wednesday a powerful west to northwest jet stream
in the
> north Atlantic will drive frontal systems across the North Sea into the
> continent introducing a spell of mild and changeable weather for the rest
of the
> week in the UK. So rain at times with fresh to strong SW winds. Possible
turning
> colder again towards next weekend as yet another upper trough disrupts
bringing
> wet and very windy weather to all parts.
>
> Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for the
unsettled
> weather to continue with temperatures around normal. Rain in all areas
with hill
> snow in colder interludes and strong winds.
>
> Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
> weekend of 15/16th January 2006.
>
> I hope everyone enjoyed the snowy, wintry conditions on Dartmoor last
weekend.
> The snow line was 280m asl precisely as predicted, although there was more
snow
> on Sunday than expected (4cm above 500m asl on Ryders Hill in south moor)
and
> less than expected on Saturday. But all in all a nice weekend. Not so good
this
> coming weekend I'm afraid. Rain at times on both days with a freshening
south to
> southwest wind turning strong to gale on Sunday. Hill fog at times above
300m
> asl. Only real chance of wintry precipitation is for a bit of sleet or wet
snow
> above 550m asl on Sunday with freezing levels above the summits. Maximum
> temperatures generally 4-7 deg C above 250m asl depending on altitude.
>
> Last week's forecast is given below for comparison.
>
> Will Hand (Chief forecaster)
>
>
============================================================================
==
>
> Summary valid for Sunday 08/01/06 to Saturday 14/01/06/
> TOI (time of issue) Thursday 05/01/06 1000 UK local time
>
> This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
> and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
>
> From now on the previous week's forecast will be left at the end of the
present
> forecast for comparison. (Sleet was seen on Dartmoor last weekend at 450m
asl
> and gales).
>
> Confidence is moderate for a return to mild and changeable conditions next
week
> (60%), however, details and timings have low confidence as it is thought
here at
> Haytor that the models are being slightly too quick with the frontal
incursions.
>
> On Sunday most parts of the UK look like being cloudy and rather cold with
> outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow. Snow mainly on high ground above 300m
and in
> the west of Engalnd and over Wales. Some heavy outbreaks are possible
which will
> fall as snow over high ground. Winds generally light from a south or
> south-easterly direction.
>
> During Monday a deepening low near Iceland will spread strong to gale
force
> south-west winds into Northern Ireland and Scotland during the afternoon
> accompanied by heavy rain. Turning mild here. Other areas should be mainly
dry
> and cloudy after a frost in parts of the SE at first. Temperatures near
normal
> and winds light.
>
> On Tuesday the rain and very strong winds will spread very slowly
south-east.
> Some of the rain is likely to be very heavy and accompanied by severe
> southwesterly gales in the west and north particularly over high ground.
Local
> flooding is a possibility. The SE could stay dry till after dark. Later in
the
> day the rain should clear from Scotland and Northern Ireland and the winds
turn
> a lighter westerly. Generally mild or very mild.
>
> The rain should clear the SE on Wednesday and then all areas will be
brighter
> and colder with sunny spells and showers. Most showers in western and
northern
> areas where they will turn wintry over hills. Temperatures returning to
normal
> values. Winds moderate to fresh west to northwest.
>
> For the rest of the week confidence falls to low as it looks like pressure
will
> build again in the south bringing a return to rather cold and quiet
weather with
> frost at night, possibly some rain or drizzle in southwest England and
milder
> here. So generally a north-west/south-east split for the latter half of
the week
> with the south-east mainly dry and rather cold with frost at night, but
the
> north-west milder with rain at times and colder, brighter showery
interludes.
>
> Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for eastern
areas to
> turn cold, mainly dry and frosty but western areas milder with rain at
times,
> obviously possible some wintry weather on the boundary.
>
> Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
> weekend of 07/08th January 2006. High confidence that there will be some
snow on
> the ground this weekend. Difficult to ascertain how much, so sledging is
> uncertain, but the higher Haytor runs could have 1-2cm by the end of
Saturday.
> Generally a cloudy weekend with outbreaks of snow above 280m asl. Winds
look
> like being east to south-east on Saturday so eastern and southern Dartmoor
> likely to see most precipitation. So some snow on Friday night/ Saturday
> morning, possibly brightening later in day. Temperatures around freezing
above
> 450m asl rising to +2 deg C at 250 m asl. On Sunday winds swing more into
the
> south and it turns a bit milder so freezing levels rising to around 600m
but
> with outbreaks of snow above 400m asl gradually turning more to rain lower
down.
> Some moderate falls of snow are possible with 2-5 cms certainly possible
on the
> high southern moor (Buckland beacon?) and in the Princetown area. So if
you can,
> get out and enjoy the beautiful winter weather this weekend as it looks
like it
> will be back to the usual Dartmoor gales and rain next week!
>
>
============================================================================
===
>
>
> Will. (Chief forecaster (HMO/USW))
> --
>
> " Ah yet another day to enjoy "
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
> A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
>
> mailto: will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> www:
www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
>
> DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
> and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
>
>

Thanks Will, What are your thoughts on "Winter Ends"?


Gary
Torquay


.



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