Next week's weather beginning 15/01/06
- From: "Will Hand" <will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 17:27:58 -0000
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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.
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Summary valid for Sunday 15/01/06 to Saturday 21/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 12/01/06 1800 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Confidence on general evolution of this forecast is moderate at 60% but low for
timings.
During Sunday, Monday and Tuesday an upper trough will be disrupting close to
the UK bringing frontal systems very slowly eastwards. This means spells of rain
and a lot of cloud in all areas. Winds fresh to strong south to southwest but
turning lighter westerly as the rain clears eastwards on Tuesday. Temperatures
close to normal but cold enough for some sleet and snow on high ground in the
north, especially on Monday.
Later on Tuesday and on Wednesday a powerful west to northwest jet stream in the
north Atlantic will drive frontal systems across the North Sea into the
continent introducing a spell of mild and changeable weather for the rest of the
week in the UK. So rain at times with fresh to strong SW winds. Possible turning
colder again towards next weekend as yet another upper trough disrupts bringing
wet and very windy weather to all parts.
Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for the unsettled
weather to continue with temperatures around normal. Rain in all areas with hill
snow in colder interludes and strong winds.
Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 15/16th January 2006.
I hope everyone enjoyed the snowy, wintry conditions on Dartmoor last weekend.
The snow line was 280m asl precisely as predicted, although there was more snow
on Sunday than expected (4cm above 500m asl on Ryders Hill in south moor) and
less than expected on Saturday. But all in all a nice weekend. Not so good this
coming weekend I'm afraid. Rain at times on both days with a freshening south to
southwest wind turning strong to gale on Sunday. Hill fog at times above 300m
asl. Only real chance of wintry precipitation is for a bit of sleet or wet snow
above 550m asl on Sunday with freezing levels above the summits. Maximum
temperatures generally 4-7 deg C above 250m asl depending on altitude.
Last week's forecast is given below for comparison.
Will Hand (Chief forecaster)
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Summary valid for Sunday 08/01/06 to Saturday 14/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 05/01/06 1000 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
>From now on the previous week's forecast will be left at the end of the present
forecast for comparison. (Sleet was seen on Dartmoor last weekend at 450m asl
and gales).
Confidence is moderate for a return to mild and changeable conditions next week
(60%), however, details and timings have low confidence as it is thought here at
Haytor that the models are being slightly too quick with the frontal incursions.
On Sunday most parts of the UK look like being cloudy and rather cold with
outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow. Snow mainly on high ground above 300m and in
the west of Engalnd and over Wales. Some heavy outbreaks are possible which will
fall as snow over high ground. Winds generally light from a south or
south-easterly direction.
During Monday a deepening low near Iceland will spread strong to gale force
south-west winds into Northern Ireland and Scotland during the afternoon
accompanied by heavy rain. Turning mild here. Other areas should be mainly dry
and cloudy after a frost in parts of the SE at first. Temperatures near normal
and winds light.
On Tuesday the rain and very strong winds will spread very slowly south-east.
Some of the rain is likely to be very heavy and accompanied by severe
southwesterly gales in the west and north particularly over high ground. Local
flooding is a possibility. The SE could stay dry till after dark. Later in the
day the rain should clear from Scotland and Northern Ireland and the winds turn
a lighter westerly. Generally mild or very mild.
The rain should clear the SE on Wednesday and then all areas will be brighter
and colder with sunny spells and showers. Most showers in western and northern
areas where they will turn wintry over hills. Temperatures returning to normal
values. Winds moderate to fresh west to northwest.
For the rest of the week confidence falls to low as it looks like pressure will
build again in the south bringing a return to rather cold and quiet weather with
frost at night, possibly some rain or drizzle in southwest England and milder
here. So generally a north-west/south-east split for the latter half of the week
with the south-east mainly dry and rather cold with frost at night, but the
north-west milder with rain at times and colder, brighter showery interludes.
Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for eastern areas to
turn cold, mainly dry and frosty but western areas milder with rain at times,
obviously possible some wintry weather on the boundary.
Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 07/08th January 2006. High confidence that there will be some snow on
the ground this weekend. Difficult to ascertain how much, so sledging is
uncertain, but the higher Haytor runs could have 1-2cm by the end of Saturday.
Generally a cloudy weekend with outbreaks of snow above 280m asl. Winds look
like being east to south-east on Saturday so eastern and southern Dartmoor
likely to see most precipitation. So some snow on Friday night/ Saturday
morning, possibly brightening later in day. Temperatures around freezing above
450m asl rising to +2 deg C at 250 m asl. On Sunday winds swing more into the
south and it turns a bit milder so freezing levels rising to around 600m but
with outbreaks of snow above 400m asl gradually turning more to rain lower down.
Some moderate falls of snow are possible with 2-5 cms certainly possible on the
high southern moor (Buckland beacon?) and in the Princetown area. So if you can,
get out and enjoy the beautiful winter weather this weekend as it looks like it
will be back to the usual Dartmoor gales and rain next week!
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Will. (Chief forecaster (HMO/USW))
--
" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto: will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
www: www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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