Re: Next week's weather beginning 08/01/06

Will

What happened to and I quote "This one should be watched because we could
be facing (40% chance) a month of
very cold weather albeit on the dry side of normal" - posted a few days ago.
I appreciated it was 60% chance of not happening either

What went wrong ? what should we be looking for another Easterly to emerge
?Is January now a write off as far as snow is concerned ? (present spell not
included)

cheers

_______________________________
Paul Crabtree
Brampton, Cumbria
117m A.S.L
www.bramptonweather.co.uk
"Will Hand" <will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:dpiphn$ea7$1$8300dec7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> ================================================================================
> ===
>
> This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
> the
> privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
> unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
> whatsoever
> for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
> of
> freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
> wish to
> share freely with others.
>
> ================================================================================
> ===
>
>
> Summary valid for Sunday 08/01/06 to Saturday 14/01/06/
> TOI (time of issue) Thursday 05/01/06 1000 UK local time
>
> This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
> FAX,
> and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
>
> From now on the previous week's forecast will be left at the end of the
> present
> forecast for comparison. (Sleet was seen on Dartmoor last weekend at 450m
> asl
> and gales).
>
> Confidence is moderate for a return to mild and changeable conditions next
> week
> (60%), however, details and timings have low confidence as it is thought
> here at
> Haytor that the models are being slightly too quick with the frontal
> incursions.
>
> On Sunday most parts of the UK look like being cloudy and rather cold with
> outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow. Snow mainly on high ground above 300m
> and in
> the west of Engalnd and over Wales. Some heavy outbreaks are possible
> which will
> fall as snow over high ground. Winds generally light from a south or
> south-easterly direction.
>
> During Monday a deepening low near Iceland will spread strong to gale
> force
> south-west winds into Northern Ireland and Scotland during the afternoon
> accompanied by heavy rain. Turning mild here. Other areas should be mainly
> dry
> and cloudy after a frost in parts of the SE at first. Temperatures near
> normal
> and winds light.
>
> On Tuesday the rain and very strong winds will spread very slowly
> south-east.
> Some of the rain is likely to be very heavy and accompanied by severe
> southwesterly gales in the west and north particularly over high ground.
> Local
> flooding is a possibility. The SE could stay dry till after dark. Later in
> the
> day the rain should clear from Scotland and Northern Ireland and the winds
> turn
> a lighter westerly. Generally mild or very mild.
>
> The rain should clear the SE on Wednesday and then all areas will be
> brighter
> and colder with sunny spells and showers. Most showers in western and
> northern
> areas where they will turn wintry over hills. Temperatures returning to
> normal
> values. Winds moderate to fresh west to northwest.
>
> For the rest of the week confidence falls to low as it looks like pressure
> will
> build again in the south bringing a return to rather cold and quiet
> weather with
> frost at night, possibly some rain or drizzle in southwest England and
> milder
> here. So generally a north-west/south-east split for the latter half of
> the week
> with the south-east mainly dry and rather cold with frost at night, but
> the
> north-west milder with rain at times and colder, brighter showery
> interludes.
>
> Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for eastern
> areas to
> turn cold, mainly dry and frosty but western areas milder with rain at
> times,
> obviously possible some wintry weather on the boundary.
>
> Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
> weekend of 07/08th January 2006. High confidence that there will be some
> snow on
> the ground this weekend. Difficult to ascertain how much, so sledging is
> uncertain, but the higher Haytor runs could have 1-2cm by the end of
> Saturday.
> Generally a cloudy weekend with outbreaks of snow above 280m asl. Winds
> look
> like being east to south-east on Saturday so eastern and southern Dartmoor
> likely to see most precipitation. So some snow on Friday night/ Saturday
> morning, possibly brightening later in day. Temperatures around freezing
> above
> 450m asl rising to +2 deg C at 250 m asl. On Sunday winds swing more into
> the
> south and it turns a bit milder so freezing levels rising to around 600m
> but
> with outbreaks of snow above 400m asl gradually turning more to rain lower
> down.
> Some moderate falls of snow are possible with 2-5 cms certainly possible
> on the
> high southern moor (Buckland beacon?) and in the Princetown area. So if
> you can,
> get out and enjoy the beautiful winter weather this weekend as it looks
> like it
> will be back to the usual Dartmoor gales and rain next week!
>
> Will Hand (Chief forecaster)
>
> ===============================================================================
>
> Here was last week's forecast:-
>
> Summary valid for Sunday 01/01/06 to Saturday 08/01/06/
> TOI (time of issue) Thursday 30/12/05 1000 UK local time
>
> This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
> FAX,
> and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
>
> Confidence is moderate to high for most of next week but turning low by
> the
> weekend.
>
> Sunday looks like being cold and showery in fresh to strong NW or
> Northerly
> winds. Showers will be of snow over high ground in the north. Turning
> drier in
> evening with a frost setting in as winds fall light.
>
> During Monday rain and strengthening winds will spread into NW'ern areas.
> Other
> parts having a fine day after a frosty start. Temperatures rather mild.
>
> On Tuesday rain will spread to all areas from the NW but turning brighter
> and
> mainly dry as the rain clears through. One or two showers in Scotland.
> Temperatures around normal.
>
> On Wednesday England and Wales could well stay fine and dry after a frost
> in
> places at first but rain and strong SW winds will spread into Northern
> Ireland
> and Scotland during the day. Possibly turning exceptionally mild in
> eastern
> Scotland. Generally mild elsewhere.
>
> On Thursday (lower confidence), some rain in the west and mild but turning
> colder in the east. Winds easing in the north.
>
> On Friday it will probably turn colder everywhere with outbreaks of rain.
> Cold
> with some sleet and snow in northern areas. Winds uncertain but mostly
> light to
> moderate.
>
> Low confidence that the weekend will remain unsettled but turn milder with
> rain
> at times.
>
> Outlook for the following week with low confidence is for a changeable
> spell of
> weather with bands of rain followed by colder showery interludes. Some
> snow on
> hills and at times in Northern Ireland and Scotland. Temperatures around
> normal
> in a predominantly westerly flow. 10% chance of another very cold easterly
> developing.
>
> Finally here is the winter walking and sledging forecast for Dartmoor for
> weekend 31st/1st. No lying snow is expected this weekend. Frequent wintry
> showers of rain, hail, sleet and wet snow are expected on Saturday, sleet
> and
> wet snow mainly above 500m asl. Brighter on Sunday but still with wintry
> showers
> over the high plateau.Winds will be westerly strong to gale on Saturday
> and
> becoming north-westerly fresh to strong on Sunday. Freezing levels will be
> above
> the summits all weekend. Temperatures around normal in the range 2-6 deg C
> depending on altitude.
> ================================================================
>
> Cheers,
>
>
> Will (Chief forecaster HMO/USW).
> --
>
> " Ah yet another day to enjoy "
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
>
>
> mailto: will@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> www:
> www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
>
> DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
> and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>


.

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