Re: Theism and Deism (was Plague)

Ken Down wrote:

[I said:]
>> It isn't the exact same evidence. If a few other people, with
>> no obvious reason to be dishonest, testify that it rained yesterday,
>> then they are almost certainly right. If a few other people, with
>> no obvious reason to be dishonest, testify that sodium ions are
>> positively charged, I'd need to check their scientific expertise
>> before knowing whether to believe them. (As it happens, sodium
>> ions *are* positively charged.) If a few other people, with no
>> obvious reason to be dishonest, testify that there is life on
>> another planet because, well, they just feel sure that there is,
>> I shall take no notice.
>> It is at least pardonable if William feels that your offer
>> puts him in the last of those positions rather than the first.

[Ken:]
> Hmmmm. Take the somewhat similar case of UFOs. If an ill-educated and
> hysterical person were to tell me that he or she had been abducted by
> aliens, I wouldn't even waste time considering the claim. On the other hand,
> if you were to suddenly claim to have spent last night onboard an alien
> spacecraft being subjected to exotic examinations, I would take the claim
> seriously, I might still doubt that aliens routinely abducted humans, but I
> would conclude that *something* worthy of investigation had taken place.
> That investigation would, doubtless, commence with the possibility that your
> evening meal had included mushrooms of unknown origin and proceed with an
> enquiry into the amount of strain you had been subjected to in your work and
> personal life, but assuming that those explanations could be discarded, the
> possibility that aliens really did abduct people would have to be
> entertained.

Right.

> Being a sceptical sort of person I would certainly not accept the reality of
> alien abduction just on your testimony alone (no matter how highly I regard
> you) but I would definitely cease to be as unbelieving as I am at present.

Right.

> I don't suggest that William should instantly turn into a believer just
> because you and I have both assured him that there is a God; I do suggest
> that if he is satisfied that the majority of posters to uk.r.c are not
> absolute raving lunatics, he should take our testimony as evidence that
> *something* is going on, something that merits further investigation[1].

I'm sure he already believes *that*. After all, the existence of
"religious experiences" is known to be very widespread. The question
is whether this ought to convince him that something *supernatural*
is going on.

The experience of deja vu is also very common. Do you think anyone
should take that as evidence that many people have the ability to
see into the future, rather than as evidence that there's some
curious thing about the human brain that sometimes produces
experiences of having-seen-that-before when one hasn't?

> If you were to assure me that regular visits to map reference YX1233456
> while wearing a silver foil wrapping on my head would result in an alien
> abduction experience of my own, I think I would be sufficiently curious to
> try the experiment. (On the other hand, there are lots and lots of people
> whose similar assurance would evoke nothing more than pitying shakes of my
> head!)
>
> In other words, it is not just the honest/dishonest thing that is important;
> there is also the reliability of the witness that has to be taken into
> account.

Right. And, as I said elsewhere, the reliability of a witness is
not an entirely simple thing; and anyone's competence in distinguishing
manifestations of God from Other Stuff is something William can
reasonably doubt, so far as I can see.

> Note 1: Unlike the existence of William's wife, whose truth or falsity will
> not really make much difference to me, the existence or non-existence of God
> has the potential to utterly change William's future prospects.

Quite true.

--
Gareth McCaughan
..sig under construc
.

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