Re: Costing a fortune

On Mon, 17 Mar 2008 20:02:31 +0100, Simon Challands
<simon_usenet@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

In message <8q4st3loip2d6956jkh1ruhec5go4nivij@xxxxxxx>
Tom Crispin <kije.remove@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


Driving on a motorway is not a high risk activity.

Yes it is.

Risk is the product of liklihood and consequence. Using the criteria
use by the Royal Parks:

Likelihood of Occurrence
1. Improbable: probability is close to zero
2. Remote: Unlikely though conceivable
3. Occasional: Could occur some time
4. Probable: Occurs repeatedly/an event to be expected
5. Frequent: Not surprised if event occurs/will occur several times

Motorway crashes rate 5 for liklihood.

For any given individual? A 3, most likely.

Consequences of Occurrence
1. Negligible: Trivial injury (requiring minor first aid)
2. Minor: Minor injury/short term absence
3. Serious: Single severe injury and/or multiple minor injuries
4. Critical: Single fatality and/or multiple severe injuries
5. Catastrophic: Multiple fatalities

Motorway crashes rate 5 for consequence

5 is possible, but again, the chances of any crash you're involved in
are likely to be far less. Surely you have to make an assessment of
the most likely? The fact that the vast majority of motorway drivers
don't end up dying in a major pileup is evidence that 5 x 5 is an
over-estimation.

Don't worry - I was trolling the troll.

I found it amusing that it didn't pick up the flaw in my argument. I
am sorry that my reply has caused irritation to others.
.

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