Re: On my head be it if I don't wear a helmet

On Wed, 04 Mar 2009 16:03:39 +0000, "Just zis Guy, you know?"
<guy.chapman@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Wed, 4 Mar 2009 09:13:14 -0000, "Dave Larrington"
<smert.spamionam@xxxxxxxxxxx> said in
<7170f9Fjn23hU1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>:

So, you THINK that these are accidents involving another vehicle. Do you
have any *facts* to back up this opinion, or is it just another case of
"because I said so"?

"STATS20 [...] confirms that all accidents involving non-motor
vehicles, such as pedal cycles and ridden horses on a public road,
should be reported, regardless of motor vehicle or pedestrian
involvement."

Mind you,

"This and other studies have shown that it is insufficient to rely
solely on STATS19 data, or on any one data source for an assessment
of trends in serious injury." Because different sources give
different numbers.

However, estimates of reporting rates show pedestrians and pedal
cycles being well reported at about 70%, two-wheeled motor vehicles
at about 60% and vehicle occupants at around 50%.


Oh hello Guy - would it be possible to clearly name your source of
data - was it the report you named or was it a summary - there is a
of course a chance that you may unintentionally trip someone up - or
perhaps even make a mistake yourself if you muddle the two.

However, I fear that you might have made a small error. This was why
I wondered if you had perhaps been looking at a summary of the paper
rather than the paper itself ; it's an easy mistake for someone to
make ;-)

The figures which you have quoted above are remarkably similar to
those in the DfT report - but actually mean something very different
from what you have said


You see the report says:

"It has been possible to estimate reporting rates for different road
user groups, with pedestrians and pedal cycles being well reported at
about 70%, two-wheeled motor vehicles at about 60% and vehicle
occupants at around 50%, making them the most underreported
group at this hospital."


Now I think you will agree that it is very similar wording to what you
have said - but there the similarity ends. Indeed - it could be quite
confusing with you having missed off the "making them the most
underreported group at this hospital."

This report itself is actually looking at matching A&E data with
STATS19 and the figures you quote are actually concerning a single
hospital!! - not the impression you made - albeit I assume
unintentionally,

For example those percentages are calculated in a very unusual
fashion:

The numerator in the study is the total number of casualties known to
the police and the denominator is all known casualties. This is
calculated by matching police casualty records with A&E department
records. Those that match are ?known to both? and those that do not
are either those ?known only to the police? (in the police record and
not in the hospital record) or ?those known only to the hospital?
(in the hospital record and not in the police record). ?All known
casualties? is then the sum of these three numbers.


So in this case - as I say, it is nothing like what you were saying.

So - I am confused - have you made an error in your interpretation of
the summary or did you read the actual report.

PS I cannot see why "different sources give different numbers" has
anything to due with trends at all unless you are forever changing
sources - which is not the case here.

Perhaps this is where you have gone wrong - perhaps not realised that
the paper was looking at very specific type of trends.




--




The Bicycle Helmet Research Foundation (BHRF) is an independent body with the message:
Helmets are not beneficial to cyclists - unless the evidence forces them to a dramatically different conclusion.







.

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