Re: Safety in Numbers

On 10 Sep, 17:00, Mike Clark <m...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Whilst you are correct that there are theoretical ways to get the
perfect data I simply don't accept that it is impossible to make
reasonable real life decisions based on the available data.

Yes it does involve a little bit of interpolation and requires some
assumptions (but reasonable ones).

Looked at in different ways, we can see that both cycling and walking
are in general low risk activities based on both per hour and also per
km. You then raised an argument that hidden within this data on distance
and time was some hidden risks based on age. So then looking at the data
broken down by age we find that the risks for both walking and cycling
show a pretty even spread across age ranges. Just because you haven't
got time, distance and age in the same table doesn't mean you can't draw
conclusions between tables. After all its essentially the same dead
population making up the data in all the different table formats.


Yes, and that would have to be done to see if any firm conclusion
would be reached.

Given that you are hypothesising the existence of extreme at risk
populations hidden within the data for cyclists, you must also
hypothesise the counter existence of extreme low risk populations in
order to counterbalance the measured risk as a whole.

No I've merely pointed out that the overall statistics don't work,
because the extreme end of the age spectrum are all skewed in
different ways for various reasons. Going back to the safety in
numbers and my comments being about town cycling, the important info
for most cyclists is the comparison between them and a similar
population of pedestrians accomplishing a comparable task.

You've got to work with and try to explain all the data that is
available, not just some it. Any explanation that you come up with needs
to fit with all the tables of accident statistics and not just focus in
on the shortcomings of one particular table.

I agree, I merely responded to that table because that is the one you
nominated, and it has many limitations regarding the
points at issue.

Toom

.

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