Re: Remember the imminent public humiliation of Paul Smith?


smeggy wrote:
Are you playing netcop and saying who can say what in which thread?

This is usenet. Topics drift. Thats life. deal with it.

I am ensuring spindrift realises the error of his/her ways. This is
spindrift's hot issue, it took up the first portion of this thread so
this issue should, can (and soon will) be concluded.
Anything else is a needless distraction. Fine, let the topic drift, but
let's not forget why the thread was started!

Let me summarise. In terms of studies that DfT will even bother to look
at, PS has done absolutely nothing apart from blow hot air with a few
buzzwords in.

So you agree there are indeed existing studies supporting what he is
claiming?

At a certain level of granularity, yes. That being that the SCP raw
data should not be used to determine the overall effect of the speed
cameras without attempting to correct for confounding factors.

If what you say is true, PS is at the very minimum
broadcasting the issues to the nation, is that really such a bad thing?

The extremes to which he goes are a disservice. There are some issues I
agree with him on (visibility around A pillars, the need for more
traffic police) but his claims that cameras cost lives are bogus. No
reputable scientist has ever published such a claim.

SCP's are presenting the raw data. It suits their PR machine to do
that. They are not exaggerating, merely misleading.

OK, I'll settle for misleading for now. Either way, the SCPs are not
telling the entire truth and we all know it. Presentation of the raw
data is fine, so long as the interpretation of it is reasonable.

That is left to the reader/journalist.

PS again has done nothing until it has been critically assessed and
published. Surely that shouldn't be too hard if it is as clear as he
claims.

Surely exactly the same can be said about the SCPs and their analyses?
Given the resource available to them and the yearly number of lives at
stake, surely this would have been done years ago?

The data has been made available and the scholarly articles are
available.


Why do you claim that the significant and worthwhile effect she
observed (always positive, mean just below 20%, and that was just in
30mph zones) was due to 'other local changes'? Are you going to provide
a detailed reason for that and point out precisely what was wrong with
Mountains reasoning (I have the papers available online and am willing
to look at detailed criticisms) or are you just blowing hot air, trying
to find soundbites for your fellow anti-camera apologists?

Explained in my last post.
She said when factoring RTTM, the actual KSI level was ~11% from
baseline:
Which study was that?

"It would be wrong to suggest that these results 'prove that speed
cameras do not save lives'. They indicate that, for the sample of sites
examined, a statistically significant reduction in fatal and serious
accidents could not be positively established. In other words a larger
sample of sites may show a larger or smaller reduction in fatal and
serious accidents but our best estimate from this data set is a fall of
11% not a zero change." (LM)

To my mind an 11% reduction not being statistically significant implies
either a small data set or a very fuzzy correction method. IIRC she
uses some Bayesian modelling, which probably requires a relatively
large data set to give significant results on small (10%) numbers.

...d

.

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