Re: void insurance etc

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 19:31:23 +0100, "AndrewR"
<andrew@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>Yes, but the frequency is question is annually.
Yet more new variables are being introduced to the equation, which
totally change everything!

Conor said that the 1 in 60 was worked out from X people having Y
accidents in Z mileage traveled, but you're suggesting, that the 1 in
60 has nothing to do with mileage at all, or number of journeys made
by car and is calculated simply from the number of drivers on the
road, and the number of accidents in a year. In theory, if X people
had Y accidents in Z mileage in W years, then both calculations should
result in the same figure of 1 in 60 per year.

>The 1/60 chance isn't related to each car journey.
Obviously, but initially nothing else was initially suggested to
indicate otherwise.

>However, as the figure quoted related to an annual chance it is unrelated to
>mileage or number of journies.
Yes and no. It now appears to be an average figure, calculated from
the total number of drivers on the road, and the total number of
accidents in a year, so you are correct in that it has nothing to do
with mileage. However each of those 25 million drivers will have
driven an average of X miles in a year, so it will be possible to
calculate a figure for the average mileage between accidents for the
average driver.

>If you divide the number of motorists (25,000,000) by the chance of them
>having an accident (1 in 60) then what you get is the number of motorists
>who, ever year, will have an accident.
>
>This formula can not tell you anything about how miles, on average, you will
>have between accidents because it doesn't involve any mileage figures.
According to you. I don't know either way, I'm just working on
information supplied to me by people on this newsgroup.

>> I still appear to have a greater capacity than you mind.
>
>Statistically the chances of this are very small indeed.
Still greater than 1 though! ;)
.

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