Re: Just how dead are SACD and DVD-A?

In article <43bae22e@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Trevor Wilson
<trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> "Jim Lesurf" <jcgl@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
> news:4de359264fjcgl@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > In article <43b9cf2d$1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Trevor Wilson
> > <trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >
> >> **It's all over. What is far more relevant is whether the public
> >> accepts Blu Ray or HD-DVD. It is likely that the computer industry
> >> will drive the winner of the two formats. SACD and DVD-A will be
> >> footnotes in audio history. After that, expect to see CDs disappear,
> >> as MP3 and MP3 type solid state systems take over.
> >
> > I doubt that CD will actually 'dissappear' very soon. Although sales
> > of CDs may well be damaged by the attempts by what Barry Fox has
> > called 'technical ignoramuses' in the audio companies to cripple its
> > acceptance by destroying its credibility with stupid 'protection'
> > schemes that actually degrade its performance when used by people who
> > don't copy the material.

> **You may doubt it, but you have no say in the matter.

None of us do as isolated individuals. However the numbers of us who buy
products will end up deciding - regardless of what the companies may have
wanted. cf failures of SACD and DVD-A in commercial terms.

> Blu-ray and HD DVD will win out.

I doubt they will *both* "win out" since they are competing formats. What
may happen is that we start with two types of (incompatable) players. Then
in desperations, player makers will make 'universal' players. Then after a
time player makers will decide it is a PITA to pay two lots of license
fees, and dump one of them. Or, more likely, the flaws inherent in the
active protection systems, and the lack of a single standard, will cause it
to become about a successfull as laserdisc...

I also doubt that they will swiftly cause existing DVD-V to dissappear.
What may happen is that we get 'universal' players, and that over a period
of about a decade people will go on using these with both DVD-V issues and
HD types as they slowly convert to HD displays.

Remember that the UK still has some way to go before PAL is switched off,
and essentially everyone is even watching conventional resolution 16:9
broadcasts via digital TX.

> It may take the form of a 'dual disk', but it will be the standard in
> the near future. Record companies hate dual inventory. They want one
> disk which is playable by everyone.

I agree that is what they want. The snag is that their greed keeps causing
them to fall over their own feet. e.g. dual discs that won't play reliably,
and cost more - even for punters who just want the established format.

> The potential for copy protection which actually works (for awhile) is
> also compelling.

Your definition of 'potential' differs from mine. :-)

The people who own the media companies keep dreaming about this, and keep
making ever bigger mistakes. cf Sony and their USA problems with protection
schemes that are now costing them millions of USD as a result of lawsuits,
etc. The proposed systems for the HD video discs have an even larger
'potential' to cause self-harm to the media companies, and ruin their nice
plans for what they want us to all do for them.

> >
> > However I also have doubts that the present plans for 'Blu Ray/HD-DVD'
> > will be as successful, as quickly, as the companies hope. Two reasons
> > for this:
> >
> > 1) Loads of people are actually quite happy with DVD as it stands, and
> > already have players and discs. The reason SACD and DVD-A haven't
> > taken off is that most people have reacted with "Who needs it? CD-A
> > is OK."

> **It doesn't matter what they think or want. The software companies will
> drive the market.

Only if people buy what is on offer. We were told SACD/DVD-A was going to
take over. I decided not to hold my breath whilst waiting for this... :-)

> If a suitable 'dual disk' can be shown to work, then it will happen.

Well, I've not seen much sign of SACD/CD dual discs causing people to flock
out and buy SACD players....

> >
> > 2) Yet more stupid 'protection' systems. This time *active* ones where
> > the discs reprogrammes the players. Hence expect cases where people
> > buy players, only to have them cease working and enter their own form
> > of 'Blue Scree of Death' sometime later. Thus angering early
> > purchasers, and deterring others from switching.

> **Almost all modern TV sets already incorporate the second half of the
> protection scheme. No one has complained yet.

Afraid I don't know what system you are referring to, so can't comment. My
understanding is that the systems proposed for HD discs involve the disc
uploading software onto the *player* and re-programming it to accept or
refuse to play discs - including other ones you already have. If that
sounds like a good idea to you, then I don't share your confidence... :-)


> CDs are the past. They'll be around for a few more years, but not much
> more.

Let's talk about this again in 5 years time. :-)

Got 'Radio Times' today. The one with the third 'free' CD-A of the Narnia
series.

Slainte,

Jim

--
Electronics http://www.st-and.ac.uk/~www_pa/Scots_Guide/intro/electron.htm
Audio Misc http://www.st-and.demon.co.uk/AudioMisc/index.html
Armstrong Audio http://www.st-and.demon.co.uk/Audio/armstrong.html
Barbirolli Soc. http://www.st-and.demon.co.uk/JBSoc/JBSoc.html
.

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