Re: Currency collapse?

On Fri, 8 May 2009 09:00:57 +0100, "DVH" <dvh@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


"abelard" <abelard3@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:3m1705p58nf6imjref0tlvcbo2obc7dht3@xxxxxxxxxx
On Thu, 7 May 2009 21:53:08 +0100, "DVH" <dvh@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


"abelard" <abelard3@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:fum505dk9ihbs2jrrsgtnee3rgeo71j5b6@xxxxxxxxxx
On Thu, 7 May 2009 13:57:16 +0100, "DVH" <dvh@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

What could it mean? Danged if I know, but it looks like QE may turn out
to
have been a red herring that suited the Government but was ignored by
the
market - which carried on quietly working through its normal cycle of
destruction followed by investment.

I'm getting quite optimistic. The figures are really improving. But I
won't
call it a real world improvement until my business improves (i.e. it
gets
easier to sell my product/service).

but but but....
the markets will be 'soaring' on the lowering value of money!!

Does that happen?

OK. Where would I find out more.

it is straight-forward logic....
the money is worth less....therefore the nominal price of the asset
rises...

I'm not convinced. It doesn't explain why equities are outperforming other
assets.

you must start from individual psychology...and thus from individual
decisions...
missis noaks doesn't buy shares....often she doesn't 'buy' a house

the decisions driving (housing, stock, commodity) assets are made by
people trying to protect their own wealth from a rapacious
government....

most people don't understand inflation....the best they have is
instinct....or if you prefer....'experience'...
so they buy 'assets'

the assets they buy are *choices*
there are various people 'out there' buying assets...those people have
varying ability....
most of them chase the markets up....most of them hang on when markets
are dropping...
the best money managers sell out when the believe markets are topping
and buy when they think markets 'can't go (much) lower...
most money managers/gamblers follow charts....
those groups essentially shear the sheep....

when the sheep get desperate enough to sell...the able money managers
will get 'bargains'....

then there are those who are seriously capable....they buy (perceived)
value at all times....

chasing markets is also tulip bulb time....
'they' are losing out on housing....so now they're looking at gold or
shares...then you ask what else is there?

For example house prices aren't following the stock market. Gold is falling.

gold is hovering....
the price of houses includes the number of people wanting them to live
in....there are maybe a million empty houses in the uk....often not
where people want them....
what do people want?
most want to live in buckingham palace or some such...because
they've been told that's groovy by the soaps like dallas....
so they keep looking for ever bigger white hefflelumps....

most people don't think very much or very clearly....

so they bid house prices up beyond their ability to sustain what they
are pleased to call their 'life-style'....then the dreams goes
titsup(a technical term)
the house 'prices' plummet....they panic...the price overshoots on
the way down.....then the vibrating systems starts to seek a new
equilibrium....and the fossil media scribblers and the clown call
that 'recovery' or even 'growth'.....

then the herd talks themselves into some new excitement

stop listening to dopes and look only at the real world.....

Securitisation (i.e. the creation of CDOs and ABSs) just isn't happening -
or at least, it's only happening at a tenth of its level before the crunch.
But why should that be?

because those instruments are notionally founded on more real/direct
markets...they are also leveraged....

On reflection, it looks fragile.

markets are fragile in some sense....life is fragile

I would want to know where this cash is coming from and why it's behaving in
the way it's behaving.

the cash is coming from the clown's printing presses...or if you want
to be picky.....his computers
but it is vital to realise it has a finite quantity....despite the
innumerate conspiracy theorists!


you are most welcome...even encouraged, to keep pushing until
you are convinced....
or even until you're not!

regards

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,396 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
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