Re: Are there likely to be severe power shortages

abelard wrote:
On Wed, 25 Jun 2008 19:51:06 +0100, Dirk Bruere at NeoPax
<dirk.bruere@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

w_tom wrote:
On Jun 25, 2:12 pm, Dirk Bruere at NeoPax <dirk.bru...@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
And what you are overlooking is that solar will probably be about a
quarter the price of nuclear, so demand will shift accordingly. Right
now electricity at night is cheaper.
Again, you missed the entire point. Your reasoning is again
completely subjective. If you know this, then you have numbers.
Where are your numbers? That was the point. Your entire conclusion
is wild speculation because (and again) you don't have numbers. What
do major electric consumers do. Work 24/7 because their factories are
that expensive or cost too much to shutdown for 8 or 16 hours.
Disagree? Fine. Where are your numbers? Where is your research?
That was the point. No numbers is a symptom of junk science
reasoning.
The numbers come from historical trends continuing for PV costs ie a fall of 16% per annum. At $1/W PV becomes cost competitive with new coal fired power stations, and with nuclear since French experience suggests costs are similar.

$1/W is allegedly already here (Nanosolar), or more conservatively, about 4 years away, depending on who you believe.

That corresponds to PV cells costing $200 per sq metre (assuming 20% efficiency). There are no physical barriers as to why the price should not continue to drop far below that price. For example, Nanosolar prints PV ink onto stainless steel substrate. There is no inherent reason why that has to limit the technology - any suitable conductor would suffice. It is quite foreseeable that ultimately PV prices will drop by a further factor of ten, to $20 per sq metre. 0.1 $/W or maybe even lower. So low, in fact, that physical structure costs will dominate. The result will be electricity so cheap that no other technology will be able to compete for daytime power. Power at night will, by comparison, be grossly expensive.

I don't see any other technology, esp nuclear, being about to drop its price by a factor of ten over the next decade or two.


jeroen van der veer, shell no. 1
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3985479.ece
"On solar power, we believe that thin-film technology could hold the
most promise to generate electricity from the sun’s energy in an
economically viable manner. So in 2006 we decided to move from
conventional crystalline silicon production to CIS thin-film
technology.

With Silicon shortages continuing, the Shell patented CIS thin-film
technology uses 100 times less raw materials than traditional silicon
crystalline. It also offers the highest efficiency’s and is easier,
and we believe, cheaper to produce in high volumes.

Together with our joint venture partner Saint Gobain we continue to
develop the next generation of CIS based thin-film technology."


the number are awesome....*but*
there *are* routes to store solar energy via eg, methanol.....

My main point is that thin film PV is now around $200 per sq m, which IMO allows for orders of magnitude price cuts in the near future.

As for storage, I expect most energy to be used either in fuel and chemical feedstock synthesis, or high energy industries like Aluminium refining. At the other end of the scale domestic batteries, either in homes or grid linked cars (recharging in day) to provide a lot of load leveling at night.

--
Dirk

http://www.transcendence.me.uk/ - Transcendence UK
Remote Viewing classes in London
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Are there likely to be severe power shortages
    ... quarter the price of nuclear, ... now electricity at night is cheaper. ... costs are similar. ... that has to limit the technology - any suitable conductor would suffice. ...
    (uk.politics.misc)
  • Re: Current prices for bulk quantities of LOX, CO2 and H2
    ... is the raw material being about 21% pure oxygen and electricity is ... This rather dated source claims a price of $.08/kg in the 80s for LOX ... At any rate gasoline probably costs more than LH2 now, ... discussion of "estimate the floor production costs for producing ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Anyone Here Driving a Hybrid yet?
    ... Present gas and electricity prices. ... all of this is just operating costs. ... is $0.079 that yields an equivilent price of $2.88/gal. ...
    (rec.crafts.metalworking)
  • Re: Are there likely to be severe power shortages
    ... At $1/W PV becomes cost competitive with new coal fired power stations, and with nuclear since French experience suggests costs are similar. ... There are no physical barriers as to why the price should not continue to drop far below that price. ... The result will be electricity so cheap that no other technology will be able to compete for daytime power. ...
    (uk.politics.misc)
  • Re: Are there likely to be severe power shortages
    ... quarter the price of nuclear, ... Right now electricity at night is cheaper. ... suggests costs are similar. ...
    (uk.politics.misc)