Re: Are there likely to be severe power shortages

w_tom wrote:
On Jun 25, 2:12 pm, Dirk Bruere at NeoPax <dirk.bru...@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
And what you are overlooking is that solar will probably be about a
quarter the price of nuclear, so demand will shift accordingly. Right
now electricity at night is cheaper.

Again, you missed the entire point. Your reasoning is again
completely subjective. If you know this, then you have numbers.
Where are your numbers? That was the point. Your entire conclusion
is wild speculation because (and again) you don't have numbers. What
do major electric consumers do. Work 24/7 because their factories are
that expensive or cost too much to shutdown for 8 or 16 hours.
Disagree? Fine. Where are your numbers? Where is your research?
That was the point. No numbers is a symptom of junk science
reasoning.

The numbers come from historical trends continuing for PV costs ie a fall of 16% per annum. At $1/W PV becomes cost competitive with new coal fired power stations, and with nuclear since French experience suggests costs are similar.

$1/W is allegedly already here (Nanosolar), or more conservatively, about 4 years away, depending on who you believe.

That corresponds to PV cells costing $200 per sq metre (assuming 20% efficiency). There are no physical barriers as to why the price should not continue to drop far below that price. For example, Nanosolar prints PV ink onto stainless steel substrate. There is no inherent reason why that has to limit the technology - any suitable conductor would suffice. It is quite foreseeable that ultimately PV prices will drop by a further factor of ten, to $20 per sq metre. 0.1 $/W or maybe even lower. So low, in fact, that physical structure costs will dominate. The result will be electricity so cheap that no other technology will be able to compete for daytime power. Power at night will, by comparison, be grossly expensive.

I don't see any other technology, esp nuclear, being about to drop its price by a factor of ten over the next decade or two.

--
Dirk

http://www.transcendence.me.uk/ - Transcendence UK
Remote Viewing classes in London
.

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