Re: World on a knife edge...


"FACE" <AFaceInTheCrowd@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:3023f3lmm4pr985o4ui2u8rg7kh71rkcba@xxxxxxxxxx
On Wed, 19 Sep 2007 20:23:38 -0000, in uk.politics.misc
hmparis@xxxxxxxxxxx, wrote

Ok but my guess is the Americans will use large numbers of cruise
missiles and big bombs from very long distances ... out of reach of
any Iranian anti-aircraft system, which will probably be targeted
very early on in a US attack anyway.

Well... if the anti-aircraft systems are dug in, and their locations
are known then that might be quite effective.
And I'm sure the US has a military target list as long as my arm.
But the AA batteries bought by iran in recent years have all been
mobile... for this reason.
Moving them about and hiding them in urban terrain or forrested areas
would make them very hard to find and hit with Cruise missiles. Only
Aircraft or groundforces can really take out mobile anti-aircraft
defences.
The SAS were used to take out few SCUD launchers that Iraq posessed
for example.
The RAF did the clearing of AA weapons in Bagdad (in the UK it's
believed this is because the US lack the skill, or believe Brits are
more expendable).
Even with Spy sattelites, truck sized mobile weapons are hard to hit.

What the US is likely to do (using Iraq as a precedent), is destroy
civilian targets and emplaced
military targets with Battleship, Cruise missile and rapid high
altitue plane strikes.
It will bomb water treatment plants, factories, hospitals, motuaries,
bridges, roads, power stations, dams etc.
It will encourage disease, blockade Iran to stop imports of
Antibiotics and medicinces, and discourage International aid agencies
from working there by dressing up as Iranians and killing them (as
it's suggested it did in Iraq).

Iran will likely try to sit out the initial wave of automated attacks,
attempt to take out as many of the slow moving and expensive cruise
missiles as it can. It might also attempt to sink any offshore
battleships that are in range.
Then when the planes come it will likely use it's missiles and planes
to maximum effect.

Of course all of this assumes that the US isn't going to use nukes, or
biological warfare, which it most certainly might, and probably has
already in other places.. A few years ago Afghanistan had an outbreak
of Congo Haemorragic feavour.. Not usually a disease native to
Afghanistan. And many people believe that 'bunker buster' is a
pseudonym for 'tactical nuke'.

On their watch more than a million Iraqis have died. It will think
nothing of repeating this, and for some reason has a huge throng of
drooling supporters behind it. Amazing really.

If I were Iran, I might in the mean time, stike a few targets of
opportunity myself. Probably in down town tel-aviv and Ankara. I'd
also try to do as much damage abroad using secret agents as I could.
Massive sabotage in major european cities. Lets face it... the US
could be stopped from going to war in Iran, were the international
community willing... so that makes us all fair targets to them once
the bombs start, doesn't it?

North Korea is also known to have sold Iran ballistic missiles with a
2000km range, that would be very difficult indeed to shoot down.. Lord
only knows what warheads they have for them.

America's other chief weapon is helicopter gunships. Apparently Iran's
republican guard spends a huge amount of time training how to take
down these kinds of aircraft in small teams using specialised short
range rocket systems, and specialised small calibre automatic
artillery.

I wouldn't expect to see heli gunships used unless the Americans put
grunts on the ground, which is unlikely IMV. Too risky for them.

The Gunships go in front of ground support (road to basra), but only
after air supperiority has been achieved.

ok - it won't be a cakewalk for the Americans. But I'd still expect
them to do a lot of damage and kill a lot of people.

Yup.. That's America.

Could you get a little more ridiculous?

Don't encourage him!

It is very entertaining.

True.


.

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