Re: World on a knife edge...


On Wed, 19 Sep 2007 14:59:20 -0000 'hmparis@xxxxxxxxxxx'
posted stuff on uk.politics.misc:

Largely agree, but a lot of Iranian weaponry only applies if America
puts grunts on the ground, which I doubt if they'll dare do because
of the heavy losses they'd suffer. And the US has no easy way of
getting its heavy metal into Iran apart from the border with Iraq
which would be vulnerable to missile attack. I really do think an
attack on Iran will be primarily by air from long distance and from
its carriers in the Gulf region. Iran's defences probably can't have
much effect on any of that, especially if it's a prime target on
day 1. How well Iran survives depends more on how well reinforced
their underground facilities are.


Everyone knows how the US fights. From 40,000 feet.

Indeed.

Iran has spent 10 years investing in anti-aircraft defense systems.
The ones it recently bought from Russia for instance can hit 3 high
altitude planes simultaneously, and the launchers are passive, and
mobile. It's believed that these systems can even take down stealth
planes, because they have optical tracking systems. Russia admits to
having sold Iran enough of these to take down hundreds of US planes.
In fact these systems were deliberately designed by Russia as an Anti-
US weapon.

Ok but my guess is the Americans will use large numbers of cruise
missiles and big bombs from very long distances ... out of reach of
any Iranian anti-aircraft system, which will probably be targeted
very early on in a US attack anyway.

North Korea is also known to have sold Iran ballistic missiles with a
2000km range, that would be very difficult indeed to shoot down.. Lord
only knows what warheads they have for them.

America's other chief weapon is helicopter gunships. Apparently Iran's
republican guard spends a huge amount of time training how to take
down these kinds of aircraft in small teams using specialised short
range rocket systems, and specialised small calibre automatic
artillery.

I wouldn't expect to see heli gunships used unless the Americans put
grunts on the ground, which is unlikely IMV. Too risky for them.

It has spent 10 years watching the US fight in Iraq.. it has spent 10
years preparing for the inevitable.
I don't for a minute think it could withstand the full might of the US
military but it won't have to.
Conversely, I don't think the US is prepared for what a bloody nose it
will get if it attacks Iran.
And as for what will happen to Irans neighbours, and to other
countries by way of Iranian secret agents, who can say. The whole
policy of attacking Iran is insane, and unecessary.. totally and
utterly insane.

The US may also bomb Ahmadinejad's palace and other key govt sites
in the hope he's at home at the time, to trigger regime change or
civil chaos.

I think they may have thought of that.

Iran for its part would probably try to expand the conflict all over
the M/E to swamp the US/Israel with a wider problem.

It'd be daft not to.

It doesn't have to, all it needs are weapons that trouble it's
neighbours, particularly turkey, and especially, Israel.
And it has such weapons in spades, most of which are mobile, or
uncharted.

Time will tell. I'm sure Israel won't get away unscathed if it's
party to an American attack.

I think it'll be worse than that even.

What is more likely IMV is Iran retaliating by stirring up big problems in
Iraq and maybe elsewhere, and possibly by trying to block Hormuz
to push up the oil price.

I doubt it.. Iran has said many times what it will do if it is
attacked.
It will turn Israel and Turkey into a fizzing glass bowls.

That implies nuclear weapons but I don't think Iran has them.

I do. Further, I think China and Russia will not stand by.
I doubt they'll fight, but they'll certainly take measures, probably
economic.

Sadly, ignorant-ego-arrogance is a sad problem afflicting too many
Americans, especially those in power. Such people only learn the
hard way - eg on 9/11...

They haven't a clue. They really believe that they can dominate the
world. They're utterly clueless.

ok - it won't be a cakewalk for the Americans. But I'd still expect
them to do a lot of damage and kill a lot of people.
.

Relevant Pages

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