Re: World on a knife edge...


On Wed, 19 Sep 2007 13:44:29 -0000 'hmparis@xxxxxxxxxxx'
posted stuff on uk.politics.misc:

I guess you meant Iran? Yes, I'm sure that's on the agenda although
I imagine the nukes Bush uses will be small ones to penetrate Iran's
underground facilities.


I think the Iranians are far better prepared for whatever the US
throws at it than Iraq was.
Iraq had voluntarilly disarmed itself for 10 years before the final
invasion. Iran has spent
the last 10 arming itself, including state of the art mobile ground to
air missile systems.

Iraq's facilities were all well mapped by the Weapons inspectors.
Iran's facilities are not, and further Iran is known to be heavilly
investing in mobile and stealth defence systems that are designed to
combat the known US modus-operandi (air strikes, gunships and small
strike teams).

Largely agree, but a lot of Iranian weaponry only applies if America
puts grunts on the ground, which I doubt if they'll dare do because
of the heavy losses they'd suffer. And the US has no easy way of
getting its heavy metal into Iran apart from the border with Iraq
which would be vulnerable to missile attack. I really do think an
attack on Iran will be primarily by air from long distance and from
its carriers in the Gulf region. Iran's defences probably can't have
much effect on any of that, especially if it's a prime target on
day 1. How well Iran survives depends more on how well reinforced
their underground facilities are.

The US may also bomb Ahmadinejad's palace and other key govt sites
in the hope he's at home at the time, to trigger regime change or
civil chaos.

Iran for its part would probably try to expand the conflict all over
the M/E to swamp the US/Israel with a wider problem.

I think it's at that point that we'll find out exactly what weapons
Iran has already got.

I doubt if they've got any weapons to trouble America.

It doesn't have to, all it needs are weapons that trouble it's
neighbours, particularly turkey, and especially, Israel.
And it has such weapons in spades, most of which are mobile, or
uncharted.

Time will tell. I'm sure Israel won't get away unscathed if it's
party to an American attack.

What is more likely IMV is Iran retaliating by stirring up big problems in
Iraq and maybe elsewhere, and possibly by trying to block Hormuz
to push up the oil price.

I doubt it.. Iran has said many times what it will do if it is
attacked.
It will turn Israel and Turkey into a fizzing glass bowls.

That implies nuclear weapons but I don't think Iran has them.

We haven't had weapons inspectors in Iran... And Russia seems VERY
VERY nervous at the thought of
bombing Iran. If I were Israel, I wouldn't be too hasty.

I'm pretty sure that the only thing that can stop decades long demise
of the US economy is a world war, which might result from the actions
of insane Americans in Iran.

That would fit into the predictions of American imperial power
expansionism made 8-10 years ago and in PNAC.

I believe they mean it.. They're insane.
Born with belly buttons and dirty arses, but somehow risen into
gods... Worst kind of idiots.

Sadly, ignorant-ego-arrogance is a sad problem afflicting too many
Americans, especially those in power. Such people only learn the
hard way - eg on 9/11...
.