Re: Bill Gates to step away from running MS
- From: acctope@xxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: 16 Jun 2006 09:40:45 -0700
I think Bill does not agree with Microsoft's planned enforcement of
software control against home users via WGA technology. The unwritten
rule that future computer geeks can cut their teeth on pirate copies is
about to be stamped on. I think Bill understands that he has created a
giant that he can no longer control. He is probably going to take time
out to become a "better software pirate" to hack his own systems.
The only reason that Microsoft Office wiped out most competition (e.g.
Word Perfect) was because of piracy. There was no incentive to consider
training in the alternatives from smaller independent companies when
borrowing a copy was just the case of pirating a simple code. The
victims of Microsoft piracy was the smaller independent software
companies, not Microsoft itself. Rather the current monopolistic
position of Microsoft is directly attributable to the tolerance of
Microsoft piracy at a home level. If companies had been accustomed to
interview young new recruits with skill sets in the different
alternatives, they would have quickly purchased a range of software
alternatives rather than going to the expense of re-training. This was
not the case, precisely because of easy piracy, and Microsoft was the
only winner.
The corporate money men have moved into Microsoft and Bill has other
concerns. Bill knows it is time to jump ship. Microsoft clearly now
intends to squeeze the domestic market for every penny. The legal
jackals first fed off the domain name disputes generated during the
dotcom bubble. Washington was beginning to acknowledge in policy papers
that legalizing such speculative forces via a free-market might be a
better long term solution. This was between the dotcom crash and the
switch to new foreign military policy objectives. The legal
profiteering moved next into protecting the music industry. It is yet
unclear whether that will actually protect the younger musical talent,
and judging by the thousands of unsigned bands in the UK it has not
"trickled down" yet. It probably won't because the legislative reform
really required is for copyright ownership to be based on content and
not medium. That requires a digital certification process (with
retrospective pecuniary enforcement rather like taxation) which legally
endorses the right to re-use "once paid-for" content in any combination
of multiple digital mediums without prior stipulation or conditions.
Until America decides on the next escalation level in foreign military
conflict (as it will inevitably do so because the scope and required
nature of global digital economic reform required is not understood),
the legal profits are moving out of military contracts. America may not
necessarily understand what is required before the worst imaginable
actually happens since profit-drivers can potentially escalate the
current "war-footing" world economy under the old shadow of
Mutually Assured Destruction. As the revolution of 1917 proves, profit
incentives can fuel the growth of conflict until the unimaginable
happens. Also it does not follow that an unintended trip into the MAD
doctrine will tip us merely back into a stalemate the Cold War allowed.
The transitional roll-over could be a mere 24 hours, after which the
chances of to bring the world to its senses may be lost.
To quote Shakespeare's King Lear:
"The worst is not, So long as we can say, 'This is the worst.' " . -
(Act IV, Scene I).
However at the moment the legal cheeses see the new profit to be in
enforcing software law in the home. Legal underlings can handle the
"by now" mundane and hence less profitable legal disputes created
by the continuing but unexceptional military case loads. With the
imminent arrival of the Vista operating system, time to test the waters
prod with tentative moves against home piracy of XP. By that they'll
acquire the sharp-shooting skills that will "protect" Vista in a way
that will surpass all our expectations. The recent mass legal
prosecution of individuals for home music piracy has provided a
"sound" foothold to do this.
But in the end, professional software piracy is no relation to leisure
product piracy. No company has a budget to purchase music, films or
computer games recommended by workers whom have pirated a copy at home.
Some will unite to fight and defend this tradition of "value added
piracy" by cracking VISTA. That also is the end of Microsoft as we
know it. By the end of 2008 the value of Microsoft will plummet
dramatically, but many lawyers will be a lot richer. 2009 will begin
with China clearly the superpower able to challenge the USA for world
leadership after a successful Olympic games in 2008. At the same time
lawyers will be rushing out of the deflated software market into a new
US led military caseload in mid 2009.
Pasta la Vista!
"The view from here is worth a fortune" (Spanish)
.
- References:
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