Re: swelling protest over alleged election fraud in irak....

On Fri, 30 Dec 2005 21:50:08 +0000, hummingbird
<ZYLYDWINUSED@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>

typed:
>On Fri, 30 Dec 2005 17:31:04 +0100, abelard <abelard2@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> mysteriously appeared thru the usenet mist to inform us thus...
>
>>>> typed:
>>>>>On Thu, 29 Dec 2005 22:05:37 +0100, abelard <abelard2@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>>>wrote:
>>>
>>>>>>it is a prime western interest that oil prices rise...quite a lot....
>>>>>
>>>>>Hmmm.
>>>>>
>>>>>That'll only happen if either supply is restricted, demand is boosted
>>>>>or the stuff is heavily taxed or some mix of these happens.
>>>>>
>>>>>How does/did the invasion of Iraq contribute to that?
>>>
>>>>well, the price has already risen substantially....
>>>
>>>But not because of Iraq.
>>
>>it has been one pressure upward on price...
>
>Just that. Others - rising demand and growing panic - are more
>important reasons.

certainly

>>the data pushed around at the time was an approximate halving of iraki
>
>?

that the invasion halved the iraki oil output...

>> production...while the supply surplus is increasingly squeezed even
>> so small a contraction helps...
>
>ISTR that Bush and Co were promising 6m bpd within one year after
>the invasion. 2006 is expected to reach 2.5m bpd which would be
>an increase of 25-30% over 2005.

what bush was 'promising' is none of my concern...
i don't even think it likely he would have said anything so reckless...

>>>>i would hope and expect the producer countries to conserve
>>>> meanwhile the consumption is rising rapidly under increasingly free
>>>> markets...
>>>
>>>That ought to please you.
>>
>>if that is the medicine necessary to pressure substitution...fine by me
>> even if i'd rather it were driven more by sense than necessity...
>>i want the heaviest possible pressure on price....outside planetary
>> starvation or collapse....
>
>Any rapid switch away from fossil fuels, even if it were possible,
>would leave some oil producing countries in one helluva mess.

certainly..the more need to modernise their economies...

> They'd
>likely blame it on the West.

idiots always blame...

>>>>perhaps i hope too much for a more sane attitude from markets (from
>>>> both sides)....
>>>>i would expect the largest fear of the producers to be substitution
>>>> as the price rises, however there has to be peak production
>>>> and that may well be soon...
>>>>peak production will drive up prices....
>>>>there must come a time when production simply cannot be driven
>>>> up to meet demand....but what really matters market wise is the
>>>> price of substitutes become competitive....
>>>
>>>But none of this has much to do with Iraq as you were asked.
>>
>>irak is not about one thing....it is many interacting things....
>>one issue with irak is geo-political control....
>>
>>meanwhile, jm is considerably more complex and subtle than yourself
>> and as ever i cut my replies to the ability of individual posters....
>
>yada yada yada. Go on admit it, you went off on a tangent.

i reply to individuals...if i perceive a tangent as useful or necessary
i go off at a tangent..in this instance to better orient your mind...

>>do not assume my replies to james are on the same level as to yourself....
>
>I assume nothing with you lardy.

that would be a considerable improvement....

>>i don't have to spell out nearly so much to james, he can fill in any gaps
>> and probe as he needs....
>>he is much more disinclined to make rash assumptions than yourself.
>
>yada yada yada. Neat diversion.
>One has to make assumptions with you lardy, you often write in
>rhyming couplets ...a bit like Widow Twanky.

your last sentence was you assume nothing...
you would much improve your ability if that stt were true...

>>>>meanwhile international agreements and global negotiating systems
>>>> are developing....
>>>
>>>But little of that has anything to do with the price of fish let alone
>>>oil.
>>
>>don't be silly....there you go looking down your reversed telescope
>> through your mucky prism at the small picture again...
>>*everything* on the planet is interlinked...and that increases daily...
>>this is part of why you cannot grasp the necessity of irak....
>
>I have ***always*** grasped the situation on Iraq. The problem is
>that I also ***always*** believed there was a better way than Bush.
>I note that my proposal of 2-3 years ago is now being called for by
>growing numbers of respected commentators and leaders, yet you still
>struggle to accept this route

what 'route'?

>, such is your desire to wield a death
>blow to Islam.

i have no such objective...all fundies are ~equal...

>When I hear people saying today that the world can only solve the
>energy problem by co-ordinated action, not by the US taking unilateral
>action to grab what's left, I can't help thinking "I told you so".

i'm am unsure whether the energy problem can be 'solved'...i strongly
suspect it can be....but there are human actions to consider...
then the problem of what to do if humans do *not* act sanely....

you have no fall back position from your pollyanna position...

'grab what is left' is not 'a solution'...it would only be a delaying
action

>Doubtless you have forgotten my comments on this pre-invasion.
>I confidently predict that co-ordinated action will occur as energy
>supply tightens

waffle....until you present precise mechanisms and the means
by which those methods will be enforced...

> and Bush will be out of office and hopefully out of
>luck and the US will return to its normal mode of doing the right
>thing, but only after trying everything else first!

as usual you are changing your position in preparation for your usual
comment that it 'was what you said all along'...
i repeat yet again to you....bush is not the usa....

>The alternative is global energy war and however powerful the US
>thinks it is, it would suffer serious consequences.

and if there is no other option because of idiots like you who tried
to bury your heads and support the madman in irak

>>>What you are advocating is modernisation of the M/E countries and
>>>this is already underway to some extent.
>>
>>agreed....fully...
>>and now accelerating rapidly thanx to irak and st george.......
>
>I don't see much modernisation in Saudi or Iran despite Iraq and
>St George. The Gulf States are already modernising w/o his help
>- Dubai gets only ~7% of GDP from oil.

that does not give me great concern...
saudi is shifting and the pressures from surrounding states will
increase the pressure...
saudi meanwhile is not invading anyone or rattling nukes...

iran bears very close watching....as with madsam, they have
decisions to make...

>>> The major issue is whether
>>>it can be rammed down the throats of the people by George Bush.
>>>I suspect the answer is *no*. Much better to encourage and cajole
>>>than to impose. Didn't teacher tell us that?
>>
>>no time to play that game....
>>fine when you have the luxuries of time and resources...
>
>There is no desperate urgency that you allude to which required forced
>feeding of modernisation. Energy supplies will follow the same route
>with/without it. All we're seeing now is a massive rise in consumption
>by the US military!

don't be daft....there are ~ 1 billion people living at western standards
and much of 5 billion more yearning to join them...and that number is
still climbing ferociously.....
you still seem to have little idea of the pressures coming down on you...

>>>This is utter tripe lardy. I have long advocated a global solution to
>>>fossil fuel peak supplies w/o recourse to war.
>>
>>you can 'advocate' to your heart's content....
>>meanwhile madsam had the ambitions of a megalomaniac and
>> was being slipped bribes by idiots in old europe and otherwheres...
>
>"had" being the operative word in your comment. I believed in Mar/2003
>and still believe that he was not a threat to regional or world peace
>any longer. He was a spent force. Nobody listened to him.

that is because you believe what you want to believe....
the fools in old europe were attempting to become serious players

your wish to hide your head under the blankets is amazing...

>>> What Bush has started
>>>is exactly what you claim to want to avoid. We now see China and India
>>>in a mad scramble to secure their energy supplies and China and Japan
>>>squabbling over reserves in the sea. Bush has set the scene for what
>>>is coming IMV as fossil energy supplies get tighter.The alt was global
>>>leadership from America as many others are now calling for.
>>
>>you can't lead wild and ambitious horses...
>>your approach is romantic twaddle...it does not take account
>> of the real pressures in the real world....
>
>See above. Others are now calling for co-odinated action on energy.

certainly....but now the coalition of the willing have put down heavy
markers...

>>during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe,
>>they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of
>>every man against every man....hobbes 1651
>
>Obviously Mr Hobbes knew little about 21st century fossil fuels.

not relevant....hobbes was talking of human nature...
that is still very much with us.


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