Re: swelling protest over alleged election fraud in irak....

On Fri, 30 Dec 2005 17:31:04 +0100, abelard <abelard2@xxxxxxxxxxx>
mysteriously appeared thru the usenet mist to inform us thus...

>>> typed:
>>>>On Thu, 29 Dec 2005 22:05:37 +0100, abelard <abelard2@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>>wrote:
>>
>>>>>it is a prime western interest that oil prices rise...quite a lot....
>>>>
>>>>Hmmm.
>>>>
>>>>That'll only happen if either supply is restricted, demand is boosted
>>>>or the stuff is heavily taxed or some mix of these happens.
>>>>
>>>>How does/did the invasion of Iraq contribute to that?
>>
>>>well, the price has already risen substantially....
>>
>>But not because of Iraq.
>
>it has been one pressure upward on price...

Just that. Others - rising demand and growing panic - are more
important reasons.

>the data pushed around at the time was an approximate halving of iraki

?

> production...while the supply surplus is increasingly squeezed even
> so small a contraction helps...

ISTR that Bush and Co were promising 6m bpd within one year after
the invasion. 2006 is expected to reach 2.5m bpd which would be
an increase of 25-30% over 2005.

>>>i would hope and expect the producer countries to conserve
>>> meanwhile the consumption is rising rapidly under increasingly free
>>> markets...
>>
>>That ought to please you.
>
>if that is the medicine necessary to pressure substitution...fine by me
> even if i'd rather it were driven more by sense than necessity...
>i want the heaviest possible pressure on price....outside planetary
> starvation or collapse....

Any rapid switch away from fossil fuels, even if it were possible,
would leave some oil producing countries in one helluva mess. They'd
likely blame it on the West.

>>>perhaps i hope too much for a more sane attitude from markets (from
>>> both sides)....
>>>i would expect the largest fear of the producers to be substitution
>>> as the price rises, however there has to be peak production
>>> and that may well be soon...
>>>peak production will drive up prices....
>>>there must come a time when production simply cannot be driven
>>> up to meet demand....but what really matters market wise is the
>>> price of substitutes become competitive....
>>
>>But none of this has much to do with Iraq as you were asked.
>
>irak is not about one thing....it is many interacting things....
>one issue with irak is geo-political control....
>
>meanwhile, jm is considerably more complex and subtle than yourself
> and as ever i cut my replies to the ability of individual posters....

yada yada yada. Go on admit it, you went off on a tangent.

>do not assume my replies to james are on the same level as to yourself....

I assume nothing with you lardy.

>i don't have to spell out nearly so much to james, he can fill in any gaps
> and probe as he needs....
>he is much more disinclined to make rash assumptions than yourself.

yada yada yada. Neat diversion.
One has to make assumptions with you lardy, you often write in
rhyming couplets ...a bit like Widow Twanky.

>>>material sciences and much else is racing forward....
>>>i think the fossil fuel age will simply peter away....but i think it
>>> would be sane to give it a push anyway possible....
>>>
>>>if the m.e can be modernised it means a more mixed economy...
>>> not an 'economy' almost wholly dependent upon a free dole
>>> of oil....
>>>
>>>i have some optimism that government will gradually put the pieces
>>> together and start acting sanely...
>>>i think the net can steadily enable that....i work day after day here and
>>> gradually the pieces come together for at least some people....
>>>i don't think an increasingly educated population will put up with the
>>> government/corporate corruption....
>>>
>>>but i don't think we have much time to act sanely...
>>>we stopped slavery and child labour....
>>>war is gradually ceasing in the advanced world....
>>>an ever growing part of the population is getting some sort of
>>> (currently archaic) education....but it is education....
>>>
>>>next remember that each generation of selfish foolish old men
>>> get displaced over time as now appear to be underway in the
>>> tory party...
>>>
>>>meanwhile international agreements and global negotiating systems
>>> are developing....
>>
>>But little of that has anything to do with the price of fish let alone
>>oil.
>
>don't be silly....there you go looking down your reversed telescope
> through your mucky prism at the small picture again...
>*everything* on the planet is interlinked...and that increases daily...
>this is part of why you cannot grasp the necessity of irak....

I have ***always*** grasped the situation on Iraq. The problem is
that I also ***always*** believed there was a better way than Bush.
I note that my proposal of 2-3 years ago is now being called for by
growing numbers of respected commentators and leaders, yet you still
struggle to accept this route, such is your desire to wield a death
blow to Islam.

When I hear people saying today that the world can only solve the
energy problem by co-ordinated action, not by the US taking unilateral
action to grab what's left, I can't help thinking "I told you so".

Doubtless you have forgotten my comments on this pre-invasion.
I confidently predict that co-ordinated action will occur as energy
supply tightens and Bush will be out of office and hopefully out of
luck and the US will return to its normal mode of doing the right
thing, but only after trying everything else first!

The alternative is global energy war and however powerful the US
thinks it is, it would suffer serious consequences.

>>>>>it is a prime western interest that poverty and dictatorship is
>>>>> ended in the m.e....
>>>>
>>>>Precisely why do you believe this?
>>>
>>>because they will better be able to manage their own resources...
>>>because their people will become more content in a more free and
>>> more wealthy society...
>>>because their will be more choice rather than sitting around in coffee
>>> shops....
>>>because in a more free, better educated and more wealthy society
>>> population growth gradually attenuates...
>>>
>>>imv there is no way the majorities in the m.e will ever forego western
>>> lifestyles in favour of burkha, primitivism and boredom....
>>>
>>>so, there are a lot of pieces in the set....
>>
>>What you are advocating is modernisation of the M/E countries and
>>this is already underway to some extent.
>
>agreed....fully...
>and now accelerating rapidly thanx to irak and st george.......

I don't see much modernisation in Saudi or Iran despite Iraq and
St George. The Gulf States are already modernising w/o his help
- Dubai gets only ~7% of GDP from oil.

>> The major issue is whether
>>it can be rammed down the throats of the people by George Bush.
>>I suspect the answer is *no*. Much better to encourage and cajole
>>than to impose. Didn't teacher tell us that?
>
>no time to play that game....
>fine when you have the luxuries of time and resources...

There is no desperate urgency that you allude to which required forced
feeding of modernisation. Energy supplies will follow the same route
with/without it. All we're seeing now is a massive rise in consumption
by the US military!

>>>the alternative is resource wars....i do not wish to say to openly what
>>> i think will happen if primitivists in the m.e. or socialist dictators
>>> are allowed sway....
>>>but the advanced world simply will not tolerate their games beyond
>>> a point...
>>>i'd rather the changes came peacefully and via negotiation rather
>>> than through force...
>>>but only a complete nut cases in a completely irresponsible government
>>> will sit around waiting eg for the loons in iran to get nukes....
>>
>>This is utter tripe lardy. I have long advocated a global solution to
>>fossil fuel peak supplies w/o recourse to war.
>
>you can 'advocate' to your heart's content....
>meanwhile madsam had the ambitions of a megalomaniac and
> was being slipped bribes by idiots in old europe and otherwheres...

"had" being the operative word in your comment. I believed in Mar/2003
and still believe that he was not a threat to regional or world peace
any longer. He was a spent force. Nobody listened to him.

>> What Bush has started
>>is exactly what you claim to want to avoid. We now see China and India
>>in a mad scramble to secure their energy supplies and China and Japan
>>squabbling over reserves in the sea. Bush has set the scene for what
>>is coming IMV as fossil energy supplies get tighter.The alt was global
>>leadership from America as many others are now calling for.
>
>you can't lead wild and ambitious horses...
>your approach is romantic twaddle...it does not take account
> of the real pressures in the real world....

See above. Others are now calling for co-odinated action on energy.

>during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe,
>they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of
>every man against every man....hobbes 1651

Obviously Mr Hobbes knew little about 21st century fossil fuels.

--
"It [Blair's government] has exploited the mood of insecurity
to push through a law protecting itself from public protest."
How freedom of speech is being curtailed in Britain under Blair:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2092-1937539,00.html
.

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