Re: Blimey!

On Sat, 04 Feb 2006 21:16:21 GMT, JAF <anarchSPAMKILLER@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

On Sat, 04 Feb 2006 20:53:05 +0000, Derek Potter
<derekatspothyphenonhyphensolutionsdotcodotuk@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Interesting. I hadn't come across Monty Hall before. Certainly the
sort of thing that would keep the Post Count up. Difficult to get your
head round innit?

All you need to know is, if you chose door 1, and three is definitely a
goat, *change your mind to door 2*. . .

I am well aware of the correct solution, it's the explanation that is
more difficult. And before you cut and paste some blurb, I do know how
it works, putting it into simple words or intuitive concepts is
harder, though the main difficulty is getting hung up on probabilities
from the beginning.

It's better if you first realize that the game is contrived so that
you can't choose a goat twice. Hence a switch swaps the outcome every
time. Hence you can swap from p=1/3 to p=2/3.

.

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