Re: Dispatches: global warming swindle


I watched this programme (C4: Thurs, March 8) with an open mind as I
have not yet taken a position about several issues regarding global
warming.
I am, on balance, sympathetic to the global warming debate, but
I have to say that the programme made some influential statements.

My position at present is this:
- I accept that the planet is getting warmer
- I am prepared to believe CO2 levels are rising
- While there appears to be a correlation, I am yet to be convinced
there is causality. Although all it would take would be one
incontravertible fact - one way or the other.
- There are powerful vested interests on both sides of the debate. I do
not believe any of them. Although there are elements of both sides of
the argument that are plausible

What's most bizarre about all these debates is that, for some people anyway,
it comes down to some form of black white , good / bad, single variable issue.

Like 'ITS THE SUN' or 'ITS CO2'. When, quite blinking obviously, it might
be both.

As an analogy, look in your PC. The CPU temp varies according to the
heat input (how hard it's working) - like the sun.
But it varies inversely to the fan speed. And the inversely to the
heatsink fan area. But proportional to the ambient temperature.
And inversely to the quality of the heatsink / CPU boundary.

And, as you may or may not know, quite significantly even with
a pretty small amount of dust clogging it (my CPU dropped a full
10'C at max use when I cleaned out the little bit collected last
summer, which I had to as I was getting BSODs. I also had to drop
the clock rate a little bit during the bloody hot spell).

Now, if you had someone say 'hey, when my heatsink clogs with
dust it gets hotter', thats a fair comment. But if you had someone
else crying 'look! when I run supergame 6 3D my CPU gets hotter,
that means your dust argument is complete bollocks, look, see,
I run, it, gets hotter, I'm right, see cos thats what I believed,
so you must be wrong!'... you'd think they were a bit .. well
... special.

You could even plot a graph of CPU heat versus games played,
but it WOULDN'T negate the fact dust makes it hotter. Surely
anyone must understand this simple analogy.

Now in the case of the climate, it's patently more complicated
than the CPU case. Yet logic and common sense seems to
go out the window, as people desparately seem to want to
throw themselves into some form of religious camp, and
drop it to a simple argument.

I watched last nights program with an open mind, and I could see
it was quite compelling, if you switched off all critical analysis, and
forgot that there are many many people who disagree with them.
Firstly, they produced a graph of sun activity over time and it
seemed to be a good fit. But got nobody to quible this.
And I thought 'how long have we been able to *accurately*
measure the suns output, below all the crap obscuring it'?
And the answer is: only since the 80s, with satellites.
Never feckin mind the 1700s. And the suns total
output according to wiki only varies by 0.1% over it's full cycle.
At that point they can only guess the temperature by looking at things
they consider 'proxies'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation

I suggest you read it, for all it's wicky goodness.

Now if you measure something by a proxy, and that proxy
happens to be tracking temp, your something is going to be a
pretty good match. Yet these guys were waving
solar intensity graphs around like they were the last word?

Don't get me wrong, I accept our temp will vary according
to the sun, but considering nobody was measuring things
at the time and the variation is small, and other people
disagree with their figures, you can't just walk away saying
'that must be right, it explains everything'.
The 'noise' value must be so high you have to be at least
sceptical. If the bit near the bottom of wiki is referring
to their data, it has since been shown to be duff data?

Secondly, if the CO2 DOES lag the temperature, and that is
so bloody provable, why is it nobody else is saying it? WHY?
I mean WHY is this OBVIOUS factor not comonly known?
WHY?
Some MASSIVE ***ing conspiracy? Seriously? Or maybe these
guys are in a small minority with that idea?

Thirdly, if, these guys suggested, its all about money, and
grants are given out for anything CC related, why aren't there
scientists researching the sun theory, the sea / co2 theory
etc? They'd still get their research grants surely. The
scientists I know became that to find things out, because
the subject interested them, not the money.
If they wanted money they'd take their numerate
degrees and coin it in as actuaries, not live on p1ss poor
grants. I do wonder if the accusations about money are
from people who don't understand doing things for the
sake of doing the thing, not the financial reward.

I could go on, but this program had the patent advantage of
being able to knock somebodies elses theories, and present
their own, with absolutely nobody to refute anything they
were saying. But I found some of it interesting, I'd like
to know more about the Sea O 2 theory. (Gerrit. .. erm)

Sam is entirely correct in the other thread, the mainstream scientists
should be able to refute this. I'd actually like to see the two sides
present their case in two shows, then get together and thrash it out in
a non dumbed down discussion. With simpsons style beating
sticks, and some cheerleaders.

At the end of the day you probably learn more hard facts about
human nature than about climate change from this program.
A few years ago people said there was no such thing as climate
change. Now its accepted. So they same people moved the goalposts
and it became 'its happening, but we're not causing it'. And the
same people will be very critical of anything that's against
their predisposed stance, then will grab with both hands anything
that happens to agree with their own stance, with absolutely
no criticism.

I have no doubt whatsoever the earths temperature varies
according to sun output, much as my CPU varies according
to use. But I'm inclined to believe that throwing a large
amount of crap known to have a warming effect into the mix
may increase that temperature. Much like dust in my CPU.

And if the sun is having a wee game of supergame 6 3D,
it doesn't prove that dust doesn't make things warm, and
I don't think chucking more dust on will help, if I don't
want a bit of a BSOD.

The political stuff at the end was bollocks. The program maker
obviously had an agenda. I can't believe even the most
die hard greenie would deny an african hospital a generator,
yet thats what the maker seemed to imply, in order to make
some form of 'they are raving zealots' point. Can't see
why he would put it in otherwise, kind of made me reflect
again on what I had just watched, so it didn't help.

I think I'm done now, I think I've pulled an analogy muscle :)

- I am old enough to remember the oil shortage scares of the 70's and
the Y2K scares. Both amounted to nothing, and reduced the credibility
of the doom merchants. I am considering putting this scare in the
same category.
Oh re this, I don't understand people who say this. You just can't take
a group of people in some field discussing one subject, and use
the result of that to dismiss a completely different group of
people discussing a completely different subject. I've even
heard people use 'Aids' that way. Better tell Africa, swathes
of Asia and Eastern Europe etc, to stop faking being 'ill' and
'dead'..
.

Relevant Pages

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