Re: OT: UFO study finds no sign of aliens


"Col" <reddwarfer@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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"michael adams" <mjadams25@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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>
fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves
Question: On the planets where life does evolve, what percentage
evolves intelligent life?
Answer: Estimates range from 100% (intelligence is such a survival
advantage that it will certainly evolve) down to near 0%.

Glad they could pin down the values to such a tight range.

So the Drake equation whilst being an interesting concept
is pretty damn useless at predicting anything.
The fundamental problem is - we don't bloody know!

....

No the Drake equation sets out what he suggests we would need
to know in oredr to make an informed guess.

It's also possibly a feature of intelligence, to have sufficient
curiosity to want to make wild guesses, for lack of anything
better.

....



fc is the fraction of fi that communicate
Question: What percentage of intelligent races have the means
and the desire to communicate?
Answer: 10% to 20%

How on earth (or indeed any other planet) can anybody answer
such a question?

....

See above.

....


10 to 20 percent, based on *what* exactly?
We have just one example of intelligent life in the universe and
with no knowledge of what might be happening elsewhere we
feel able to pluck figures from the air as to the behaviour of
extra-terrestrial civilisations.

....

We have no choice.

Intelligence probably requires both insatiable curiosity
and the possibility of being wildly wrong.


michael adams

....




Col
--
Oh, so you'd like a *cooked* one?
-Basil Fawlty




.

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