Re: Deal or no Deal

LindaMcK wrote:
zcx wrote:
I have a question which has been bugging me.
OK did anyone see Deal or No Deal last night?

The guy had 5 boxes left i.e. his own plus 4 others.

4 were blue and 1 was red.

He picked 3, and they were *all* blue.

There is now 1 red and 1 blue box. - one is his and one is still
left.

Obviously this implies that there is a 50/50 chance of it being red
or blue.

However, does the fact that he picked 3 boxes and they were all blue
mean that it is *more* likely that the blue box is the one left
(i.e. surely it's easier to pick 3 blue boxes if there are 4 left
out there?)

Nope. If there is 1 blue box and 1 red box, the probability of the
box you picked being blue is 0.5 regardless of how many boxes there
were 5 minutes before. A 50/50 chance you pick a blue one. A 50/50
chance you pick a red one.


The probability from the beginning of the game, before any boxes are opened, is 0.5 that you have been allocated a blue box and 0.5 that you have been allocated a red one. This probability doesn't change no matter what happens in the course of the game.
There's also a 50% chance you'll find a dead cat in your box.
--
John Dean
Oxford

.

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