Re: Deal or no Deal


zcx wrote:
I have a question which has been bugging me.
OK did anyone see Deal or No Deal last night?

The guy had 5 boxes left i.e. his own plus 4 others.

4 were blue and 1 was red.

He picked 3, and they were *all* blue.

There is now 1 red and 1 blue box. - one is his and one is still left.

Obviously this implies that there is a 50/50 chance of it being red or blue.

However, does the fact that he picked 3 boxes and they were all blue mean
that it is *more* likely that the blue box is the one left (i.e. surely it's
easier to pick 3 blue boxes if there are 4 left out there?)

Nope. If there is 1 blue box and 1 red box, the probability of the box
you picked being blue is 0.5 regardless of how many boxes there were 5
minutes before. A 50/50 chance you pick a blue one. A 50/50 chance
you pick a red one.


I have asked a few people and they don't seem to know (or care).
Any ideas?

.

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