Re: To all those yank bashers...


"Knight Of The Road" <russiatrucking@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:qpmdnVazxtzD7TfVnZ2dnUVZ8szinZ2d@xxxxxxxxx



"Not Today" <Notday@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote



Rightmove, the property website, announced today that in August year on
year
house prices fell 4.8%.What Knight of the Road's done is take a gamble.
He now
has no house but money in the bank earning say 5% after tax. Inflation is
eating that away at 5% at current rates.


I'll just correct you there.

Rightmove's figure's are for "offering prices". The Halifax figures are
for "sold for prices", they are far more accurate and show a fall of 10.9%
year on year. (Source,
http://www.financemarkets.co.uk/2008/08/07/house-prices-fall-109-year-on-year/

Rightmove's figures do show however that London asking prices fell by 4.8%
last month alone (Source,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a0YMieeK3mCs&refer=home

That's nearly £10,000 off of the price of an average property in one
month. I paid £525 in rent to buy that month.


My prediction is that by the end of the year, house prices will be down by
25% year on year, and that the fall from peak will be 50%. This has always
been my opinion, and although a few months ago it was considered to be an
outrageous opinion, suddenly it isn't any more (Source,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/09/housingmarket.houseprices )

No point arguing about this, time will prove me right or wrong.


I am not arguing that house prices are not falling and that they might not
fall 20,30,50%.That was the forecast of anybody with a knowledge of
Elliott waves more than 2 years ago. If you read my posts going back 2
years I was predicting doom and gloom then. If house prices do fall 50%
though we will have a lot more to worry about than making a few grand on
our houses.Unemployment, pensions, bank failures, deflation, will rip our
lives to shreds.

My point is that protecting yourself by selling your house is a too
simplistic, inconvenient and daft way to do it. There was a much easier and
less risky way to protect yourself from the crash and I posted how you
could have done it. My hedge fund is already in the bank, you have the
stress of waiting to call the bottom of the market. Not that easy.

Also, you should be careful of house price surveys at the moment. Prices are
being skewed downwards by the small minority of house owners who are forced
to sell at any price. The vast majority of people are just sitting tight and
have no intention of moving until this recession has passed.That could take
years. In reality there is not a house market currently. Any more bad
news from the banking sector here, or in the States, could tip us into
depression. Survival will then be the name of the game, not making a profit.

Finally, while you may know a little about something, it is arrogant to
assume that other posters do not know as much if not more than you. Your
presumption of how I "shorted" my house was very far off the mark.If you
take most posters to ulk, I would not make pronouncements on what
they do or do not know on any subject. It is not what they post, it is what
they do not. There are some knowledgeable people on here!













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