Re: Sally Clark died of alcohol poisoning

On 7 Nov, 22:05, Ian <ian.gro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On 7 Nov, 13:48, "Dave Baker" <D...@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

I just think what a terrible tragedy this has been. To lose your children in
the first place and then to face being wrongly convicted of doing it is a
horror beyond imagination. The justice system has a lot to answer for.

I feel sorry for the children who died, myself, and for Meadows who
was quite unjustly pilloried for quoting the figures generally
accepted by the medical profession at the time.

Why? He was appropriately "pilloried" for having given piffle in
evidence that he, quite frankly, did not really understand.

It is axiomatic among statisticians that very few - if any - medical
practitioners understand statistics. He was a pediatrician, yet he
was giving evidence on the alleged likelihood of recurrent "cot death"
as if he were an epidemiologist.

The chance of a second cot death is now quoted at 1 in 200. I suppose
0.5% is "reasonable doubt", just about.

Actually, it is now reckoned to be 1 in 100.

Sally Clark's wrongful conviction was not quashed because of the
mistaken statistic given in evidence, but because the prosecution had
failed to disclose the Staphylococcus aureus infection discovered in
the post mortem examination of her second child. That infection
suggested his death was most probably due to natural causes.

--
x If you have been, will you remain ignorant?
/|\

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: A simple QUIZ
    ... Jack Tomsky, OMU, Bob Ling – ... I believe his position is the same one taken by Altman & Bland in their article, "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence". ... You have cited some examples of well-known statisticians who were happy to use "the accept H0" terminology. ...
    (sci.stat.math)
  • Re: A simple QUIZ
    ... evidence of a difference. ... and for the reason given by Altman & ... Bland, the latter is ... statisticians who were happy ...
    (sci.stat.math)
  • Re: A simple QUIZ
    ... Under the Afonso theory of hypothesis testing, ... "Absence of evidence is not evidence ... statisticians who were happy ...
    (sci.stat.math)
  • Re: Sally Clark, dead at age 42
    ... It means that for every cot death that takes place, in one case in every 200, a second cot death will happen. ... In any given case, however, that does not equate to a 99.5% chance of guilt, or even, as I presume you meant, a 95% chance of guilt. ... It means that you have to determine whether this case was one of the well-recognised instances of a second cot death, or whether in fact there is some other evidence to prove that there was a cause other than nature for the death. ...
    (uk.legal)