Re: Sustainable UK population

nichughes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

> Or even reopen the coalfields closed in the 1980's because the figures
> for coal reserves actually dropped when the mines were closed - not
> because the coal went away but because it was no longer deemed economic
> to dig it up.

I thought it was not possible to reopen closed mines, and so the coal left
behind was 'lost'.

amount of coal. The figure reported to be extractable in 1991/92 was 45
billion tonnes.

That is clearly substantial. Both the 45 billion and 190 billion tonnes figures
were actually calculated in 1977 by the NCB and later referred to as
"technically recoverable" reserves. In 1981 a review of the NCB's figures was
carried out by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) / Institute of
Geological Sciences (IGS) which "was sceptical about the estimates of 45 bnt"
which the NCB claimed to represent "300 years of reserves".

I can't find a more recent assessment of complete reserves, but some more
snippets on reserve estimates are available from
<http://www.coal.gov.uk/media//860AD/Response%20to%20Energy%20Review%20-%20Appendix%202.pdf>
(Coal Authority, April 2006):

1997: NCB fully proved: 4bnt existing mines, 2 bnt identified new mines
1983: NCB deep mine reserves: 4223 mt proved + 622 mt estimated
1993: Coal Authority open-cast reserves: 909 mt potential (inc. 324 mt proved)
2005: Coal Authority open-cast: 619.2 mt potential, approved/working: 50mt
2005: Coal Authority deep mines reserves+resources: 86 mt - 159 mt

There is also potential for underground coal gasification (UCG), with accessible coal volume between 7bnt - 16bnt. "The volumes represent 200 years based on the
current UK coal consumption of 64 mt p.a."

Since none of these mention costs, EROEI or clean-coal technology it is not
possible to say how much of each reserve is cheaper than renewable energy or
biomass chemical stocks.

The latest date given by the Coal Authority for all deep mine exhaustion (with
additional investment for developing more resources) is 2035.
"This again assumes all pits continue in production until exhaustion."
You can stick with the 1977 figure if it makes you feel comfortable. Yes higher
energy costs make more reserves economically exploitable, but they also make
other cleaner technologies more viable as well.

figure is clearly substantial. If 1.5 billion is 17 years worth then
the 45 billion figure would be more like 500. The 190 billion ton
figure requires new techniques but given 500 years to find them I think
we have more pressing problems to worry about. Don't you?

For climate change and other environmental and economic reasons I don't see coal
completely replacing the role oil has in our economy, although if UCG pans out
and is compatible with clean-coal technology cheaper than renewables, it would
allow a relatively high-energy lifestyle for centuries.

Soil degradation from excessive use of inorganic fertilisers and overintensive
farming is happening regardless of our energy sources. A more sustainable way
of living must be found, and a sustainable population is a part of that.

Of course all that supposes an almost pathological self-dependence,
worldwide current active coalfields at current prices have 200 years
reserves. The UK may just have to go on importing coal, presumably on
coal-powered ships.

We could try. But looking at our economy before North Sea oil, being a net
energy importer is a recipe for poverty and economic decline. There is nothing
pathological about living within your means - exports and imports have to
balance in the longer term. If we are going to import more food and energy,
what will we export to pay for it? Our balance of payments is already a
problem.

Toby
.

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