Re: Self Destruction

In article <kkjfa3587m26112gi08gsl8uk1gmr11rfg@xxxxxxx>,
<amacmil304@xxxxxxx> wrote:

And Thomas Malthus has not yet proved right either.

He has if you look at historical and ongoing examples.


Read a bit more about him before you start flinging names about.


Well here is a view on it which is vindicated by history :


In forming his dark forecast Malthus failed to take several factors into
consideration. The industrial revolution transformed the very nature of
Western society, so that his principles, which assume that agriculture
forms the center of the economy, lost their validity by mid-nineteenth
century. Focusing exclusively on the birth rates of economically thriving
communities, he failed to consider that part of his projected "population
explosion" would come from a reduction in death rates. This oversight
throws Malthus's theories into disarray. An increase in the elderly
population would not have significant repercussions in the labor market.
Essentially, wages would not fall to the extent that Malthus originally
predicted. In an era where children entered the work force at an early
age, an increase in birth rates would have more profound implications than
a decrease in deaths.

A more forgivable mistake by Malthus involves his failure to anticipate
the growth of technology. The advancements made in agricultural science
allowed farmers to make greater use of their lands. The development of
effective contraception also made "restraint" a non-issue in terms of
checking population growth. Because of these scientific breakthroughs the
theories of Malthus have had little relevance in regards to Western
society. Many underdeveloped nations, however, never adopted improved
farming techniques or new methods of contraception. The results of this
failure have mirrored Malthusian predictions to a startling degree.
Overpopulation, famine, pestilence and war continue to ravage the third
world. These events constitute an unhappy vindication of many of
Malthusian doctrine.

(http://www.victorianweb.org/economics/malthus.html)

Do you know just how much higher the UK population has got since the
predictions of Malthus?

This industrial revolution is also transforming the rest of the world bit
by bit, and it is the very improvements in the world which are increasing
people's life expectancy, and consumption.

I am old enough in the fifties to remember the starvation in China and
India.

We, and I talk of the human family have technolgies which feed us,
progressively improve our health and richness of life.

You think this dooms the planet, because of the malthusian doctrine, but
it does not. When I was a lad I looked at the pollution of rivers, and
assumed that they and everything would only get worse, but it hasn't
because enough people saw that it was tackled. I have seen rivers and air
cleaned up, in this country which some list as the third most populous in
the world. (To be fair I think it is SE England rather than the UK)
We have technologies underway which will ultimately enable us to generate
electricity in cells on our roof. Things don't stand still.

There is however a possibility that the civilisation of this age will
collapse, though as I said the human race will survive. This outcome will
happen, if people spend their energy on fighting, illogical philosophies
or sheer complacency.

--
Regards from Bob Seago: http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/rjseago/
.