Re: Zero avian 'flu risk from wild birds


"BAC" <casswalk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> a écrit dans le message de news:
1145819666.16638.0@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"Malcolm" <Malcolm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:xynZMoYVt1SEFwOM@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In article <1145788083.89829.0@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, BAC
<casswalk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> writes

"John Morgan" <shirley.yu@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:444b201c$0$303$7a628cd7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The number of human cases of avian 'flu world-wide, attributable to
wild
birds, is currently put at zero. In assessing risk, this would be the
figure, suitably scaled, that would be used to calculate human risk.

Multiplication of the numerator of a fraction by zero does not
require
too
much knowledge of Arithmetic to work out. An 'O' grade should be
enough.



If you read through

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/avian_influenza/en/

you will see that the main risk factor speculated on is contact with
infected birds, dead or alive. It matters not whether the infected
birds
are
'wild' or 'domestic'.

Though, as it says at the end:

"To date, human cases have been reported in six countries, most of which
are in Asia: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey, and Viet Nam.
The first patients in the current outbreak, which were reported from
Viet Nam, developed symptoms in December 2003 but were not confirmed as
H5N1 infection until 11 January 2004. Thailand reported its first cases
on 23 January 2004. The first case in Cambodia was reported on 2
February 2005. The next country to report cases was Indonesia, which
confirmed its first infection on 21 July. China's first two cases were
reported on 16 November 2005. Confirmation of the first cases in Turkey
came on 5 January 2006, followed by the first reported case in Iraq on
30 January 2006. All human cases have coincided with outbreaks of highly
pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in poultry. To date, Viet Nam has been
the most severely affected country, with more than 90 cases."

The penultimate sentence would seem to back up what John posted.


Really? Where does it say there is zero risk of contracting avian flu
from,
say, a dead (infected) wild bird?

The suggested calculation is for the risk involved, based on the current
state of knowledge. Because there are no known cases of wild-bird to human
transmission, the baseline figure for any risk calculation is that popular
oxymoron, a big fat zero.

We can, of course, all go round wearing banana skins on our heads, as this
is known to be100% succesful in preventing malaria transmission in temperate
and polar regions. I prefer not to, taking my chances with all the other
non-bananaskin wearers out there.


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