Re: Zero avian 'flu risk from wild birds

On Sun, 23 Apr 2006 08:05:17 +0100, Malcolm
<Malcolm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


In article <444b201c$0$303$7a628cd7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, John Morgan
<shirley.yu@xxxxxxx> writes
The number of human cases of avian 'flu world-wide, attributable to wild
birds, is currently put at zero. In assessing risk, this would be the
figure, suitably scaled, that would be used to calculate human risk.

Multiplication of the numerator of a fraction by zero does not require too
much knowledge of Arithmetic to work out. An 'O' grade should be enough.

And, of course, that zero includes people who regularly handle wild
birds of all kinds. I wonder how many people there are worldwide who
shoot and trap birds to eat, not just handling them themselves, but
transporting them to market where they will be handled by those selling
them as well as by those buying them and plucking and gutting them - it
could run into hundreds of millions, and wildfowl will figure large in
their quarry. Yet, as you say, there's not a single case of a human
catching avian flu from a wild bird.

Yet.


That really does put things into perspective, doesn't it?

The unexpected can happen at any time. Staying away from birds
reserves in an area where the infection has been identified is a
prudent suggestion.
Angus Macmillan
www.roots-of-blood.org.uk
www.killhunting.org
www.con-servation.org.uk
.

Relevant Pages

  • Zero avian flu risk from wild birds
    ... The number of human cases of avian 'flu world-wide, attributable to wild ... birds, ... In assessing risk, this would be the ... Multiplication of the numerator of a fraction by zero does not require too ...
    (uk.environment.conservation)
  • Re: why and when constant values in different multivariate models
    ... Social Research Consultants ... birds (continuos) ... to zero, then species number must be zero, too - with no respect to ... For any social behavior, including birds', I would hesitate to assume that the relation was strictly linear. ...
    (sci.stat.consult)
  • Re: why and when constant values in different multivariate models
    ... birds (continuos) ... variability of species number or bird density. ... to zero, then species number must be zero, too - with no respect to ... For any social behavior, including birds', I would hesitate to ...
    (sci.stat.consult)
  • Re: Zero avian flu risk from wild birds
    ... In message, Malcolm ... figure, suitably scaled, that would be used to calculate human risk. ... Multiplication of the numerator of a fraction by zero does not require too ... And, of course, that zero includes people who regularly handle wild birds of all kinds. ...
    (uk.environment.conservation)
  • Re: Zero avian flu risk from wild birds
    ... birds, ... it's almost as if he hadn't heard of risk assessment. ... completely unable to come up with one in relation to avian flu. ... many years and that the risk was zero. ...
    (uk.environment.conservation)