Re: Zero avian 'flu risk from wild birds

In message <dypSsfFtcySEFwb7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Malcolm <Malcolm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> writes

In article <444b201c$0$303$7a628cd7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, John Morgan <shirley.yu@xxxxxxx> writes
The number of human cases of avian 'flu world-wide, attributable to wild
birds, is currently put at zero. In assessing risk, this would be the
figure, suitably scaled, that would be used to calculate human risk.

Multiplication of the numerator of a fraction by zero does not require too
much knowledge of Arithmetic to work out. An 'O' grade should be enough.

And, of course, that zero includes people who regularly handle wild birds of all kinds. I wonder how many people there are worldwide who shoot and trap birds to eat, not just handling them themselves, but transporting them to market where they will be handled by those selling them as well as by those buying them and plucking and gutting them - it could run into hundreds of millions, and wildfowl will figure large in their quarry. Yet, as you say, there's not a single case of a human catching avian flu from a wild bird.

That really does put things into perspective, doesn't it?


Just the sort of risk I have been trying to get Angus to assess. However it was obvious that he wouldn't as that would blow this particular part of his crazy vendetta right out of the water.
--
Malcolm Kane
.

Relevant Pages

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