Re: China: H5N1 infected poultry -- symptomless

Thus spake Jill <news@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>

"Charles Francis" <charles@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message

I do not disagree with the idea that there is more to learn about this virus
but to imply that only superficial research has been done in the past 10
years is unlikely

Goodness, what a lot hangs on the choice of an adjective! Just because I
think we are only at the early stages of scientific research in a
particular field, and that what we have learned is only probably only
the tip of an iceberg, does not imply that I could possibly use the word
superficial to describe the research! I would not want to convey that
impression.

I do not see how 1% infected birds showing no symptoms is consistent
with a disease which causes 90% mortality within days.

It is possible when the bird was tested at a market so due to be killed
within a few hours

Not really. Not 1% of 50,000 birds taken over a wide area and time span.

But they were all in the same scenario -- in the about to be sold
conditions.

True. Nonetheless they come from a range of flocks, and one has to
reckon that percentage must be present in the entire population. Either
a similar low percentage is prevalent though out, or significant numbers
of flocks have a high proportion of infected birds. The problem with
this latter scenario is that one would expect these flocks to have be
noticed as sites of outbreaks of the disease.

and 50,000 birds in markets in China is a very small number

It's still a significant sample. More than big enough to be
representative, though probably not without some bias, given that it was
from birds at market.

If this was the disease in anything like the form it is described in the
media, there would have to be a serious number of outbreaks to explain
that. Not none, as seems to be the case.

It is already known that China has been underreporting outbreaks for years

It may well be that there are further strains in China -- their actions in
the past few years would not discount this at all

If you really want to say the Chinese are to blame, you are onto as much
of a dead horse as slagging off the SVS in my view.

Their actions have seriously undermined the efforts of the other countries
to control this virus.

That assumes that any method of control is possible. Something I
seriously doubt.

They had a responsibility for disease control

a. That assumes that any method of control is possible. Something I
seriously doubt.

b. Who gave them such responsibility? Only God could do that. I would
condemn any individual or country that takes on such a conceit.

The virus is no longer confined geographically

It never appeared likely that it would be.

Its route out was through Chinese terriotory - it would have been more
likely to have erupted south
[Australia have said they expect it to be in the Northern Terriotories but
it has not been located yet]

Again that seems to indicate conditions in a particular country are
significant, rather than controls.

They have repeatedly admitted misreporting and mishandling earlier outbreaks
Its a vast place but one who knew how to deal with this virus and
potentially had the ability to do a heck of a lot better than they did.
I am not into conspiracy theories at all only evidence
They acted completely irresponsibly where the other countries have been
working tirelessly to control the situation. Indonesia is the place most
struggling it seems

Except that LPAI has had serious economic effects on poultry farms in many
countries around the world year on year.
Including continental Europe in the last 10 years
If Low pathogenic forms can infiltrate their significant biosecurity I can
understand their concerns about a HP form

Its true the setups in SE Asia are much more vulnerable - less due to
hygiene standards perse and more due to the whole structure. They have a
climate whereby they don't need buildings - they have open sided roofed
structures for raising birds. Where possible these are built over water so
they can utilize the highly nutritious feed that poultry produce for raising
fish like carp
Obviously this creates a haven for a virus with the strategies this one has
developed.
Obviously this is not a scenario that exists in all other parts of the
world.

I'm glad you mentioned other factors. I suspected they might be
important and had been going to ask.

However this virus has already shown that it is unstable and mutating at a
high rate which will allow it to "adapt" to new conditions presented to it.
Again not something that is present in all other global disease challenges

Actually it is. E.g. development of super bugs immune to antibiotics.

This is suddenly going to
wipe out much of the western world, or even just our chicken
populations.

Well - you are the only one repeating this.

I merely read between the lines of press reports. It makes a better
story when they hint at such things.

It is a virus that can have a serious impact on the poultry industry which
is one of the most vital globally, not only in financial terms but more
importantly in nutritional terms.
It is one who's presence we are going to all have to learn to live with

That's true.

but
one that needs to be fiercely controlled at each outbreak. This has been
shown to be the effective way to deal with it.
It is the responsibility of each country to do so if they are affected by
it.
It is a virus with a known history of mutating into a form that can have
significant affects on humans so the efforts to control it are even more
crucial

They appear to me to be little more than an ineffective, and probably
highly expensive, panic response. c.f. foot and mouth control over here.
I have no faith in such forms of disease control. So long as the
conditions exist for a disease to thrive, it will do so.



Regards

--
Charles Francis
Please reply by name
.

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