Re: China: H5N1 infected poultry -- symptomless


"Charles Francis" <charles@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
They are not likely to do tests
or make accurate individual diagnoses unless people get ill,

This is entirely incorrect - the economic effect in the poultry industry
means that there is a great deal of attention paid to these strains of
viruses at all time
Its true that outside of the commercial poultry world and beyond the area
of
impact each outbreak has, there is no media or public attention ever given
to them. Just like thousands of other animal diseases that occur at any
one
time

Did you ever get tests done on your own birds? We did, in the early
days. It was clear that you can only expect a limited amount of
information back. You only pay for what actually helps you reduce the
economic impact. So long as the research is commercially driven, the
main thing of interest is how to control a particular outbreak. It just
isn't worth running every test in every instance. Even with what is
studied, stacks of stuff is bound to go unobserved.

I do not disagree with the idea that there is more to learn about this virus
but to imply that only superficial research has been done in the past 10
years is unlikely - while in the West this is a new problem it has had a
serious effect on the life and economies of the countries it has affected
and while the communities affected may be poor the research facilities of
the countries are far from backward


I do not see how 1% infected birds showing no symptoms is consistent
with a disease which causes 90% mortality within days.

It is possible when the bird was tested at a market so due to be killed
within a few hours

Not really. Not 1% of 50,000 birds taken over a wide area and time span.

But they were all in the same scenario -- in the about to be sold
conditions.
and 50,000 birds in markets in China is a very small number

If this was the disease in anything like the form it is described in the
media, there would have to be a serious number of outbreaks to explain
that. Not none, as seems to be the case.

It is already known that China has been underreporting outbreaks for years

Except for a few humans, of
course, which was suspicious in itself in an area where they weren't
having outbreaks.

While these need investigating obviously the human cases are a red herring
The route of infection is simple and well understood.
While the disease is around especially in poor reporting countries with poor
educational resources these will unfortunately continue

It seems to me
there are three options: explain how this can be consistent, discredit
the study, or to take on board the possibility that previous data has
been misinterpreted or misunderstood. According to a general
understanding of how science works, I would say the third is by far the
most likely.

It may well be that there are further strains in China -- their actions in
the past few years would not discount this at all

If you really want to say the Chinese are to blame, you are onto as much
of a dead horse as slagging off the SVS in my view.

Their actions have seriously undermined the efforts of the other countries
to control this virus.
They had a responsibility for disease control
The virus is no longer confined geographically
Its route out was through Chinese terriotory - it would have been more
likely to have erupted south
[Australia have said they expect it to be in the Northern Terriotories but
it has not been located yet]
They have repeatedly admitted misreporting and mishandling earlier outbreaks
Its a vast place but one who knew how to deal with this virus and
potentially had the ability to do a heck of a lot better than they did.
I am not into conspiracy theories at all only evidence
They acted completely irresponsibly where the other countries have been
working tirelessly to control the situation. Indonesia is the place most
struggling it seems


Quite frankly, the more I find out about this virus the more boring and
less threatening I find it. People living in unhygienic conditions with
birds may be vulnerable.

At present all reference to human infection is a red herring. This is a
animal health issue while it remains in this form. The only part of the
present situation that has relevance to humans is that the longer it is
around in its HP form and the more its allowed to get into vulnerable
populations the higher the probability of a critical mutation.

Intensive poultry farms in asia where hygiene
standards don't match our own are vulnerable.

Except that LPAI has had serious economic effects on poultry farms in many
countries around the world year on year.
Including continental Europe in the last 10 years
If Low pathogenic forms can infiltrate their significant biosecurity I can
understand their concerns about a HP form

Its true the setups in SE Asia are much more vulnerable - less due to
hygiene standards perse and more due to the whole structure. They have a
climate whereby they don't need buildings - they have open sided roofed
structures for raising birds. Where possible these are built over water so
they can utilize the highly nutritious feed that poultry produce for raising
fish like carp
Obviously this creates a haven for a virus with the strategies this one has
developed.
Obviously this is not a scenario that exists in all other parts of the
world.
However this virus has already shown that it is unstable and mutating at a
high rate which will allow it to "adapt" to new conditions presented to it.
Again not something that is present in all other global disease challenges

This is suddenly going to
wipe out much of the western world, or even just our chicken
populations.

Well - you are the only one repeating this.

It is a virus that can have a serious impact on the poultry industry which
is one of the most vital globally, not only in financial terms but more
importantly in nutritional terms.
It is one who's presence we are going to all have to learn to live with but
one that needs to be fiercely controlled at each outbreak. This has been
shown to be the effective way to deal with it.
It is the responsibility of each country to do so if they are affected by
it.
It is a virus with a known history of mutating into a form that can have
significant affects on humans so the efforts to control it are even more
crucial


--

regards
Jill Bowis

Pure bred utility chickens and ducks
Housing; Equipment, Books, Videos, Gifts
Herbaceous; Herb and Alpine nursery
Working Holidays in Scotland
http://www.kintaline.co.uk




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