Re: China: H5N1 infected poultry -- symptomless


"Charles Francis" <charles@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message >

It seems quite unlikely that the scientists did not know what they were
doing, more likely that they may have been misreported. Mostly these
things do not seem too well understood. New strains are just as likely
to be old strains previously undetected.

These viruses have a serious economic effect whereever they occur - even in
the Low PAthogenic form
They are not "undetected" for long!
They are extensively and intensely studied

They are not likely to do tests
or make accurate individual diagnoses unless people get ill,

This is entirely incorrect - the economic effect in the poultry industry
means that there is a great deal of attention paid to these strains of
viruses at all time
Its true that outside of the commercial poultry world and beyond the area of
impact each outbreak has, there is no media or public attention ever given
to them. Just like thousands of other animal diseases that occur at any one
time



I do not see how 1% infected birds showing no symptoms is consistent
with a disease which causes 90% mortality within days.

It is possible when the bird was tested at a market so due to be killed
within a few hours

It seems to me
there are three options: explain how this can be consistent, discredit
the study, or to take on board the possibility that previous data has
been misinterpreted or misunderstood. According to a general
understanding of how science works, I would say the third is by far the
most likely.

It may well be that there are further strains in China -- their actions in
the past few years would not discount this at all
However considering how many people have studied the many different strains
and mutations in laboratories, farms of all sizes, in countries around the
world it is unlikely that this study [which seems crude at best] discredits
the work of several ceturies

--

regards
Jill Bowis

Pure bred utility chickens and ducks
Housing; Equipment, Books, Videos, Gifts
Herbaceous; Herb and Alpine nursery
Working Holidays in Scotland
http://www.kintaline.co.uk


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