Re: China: H5N1 infected poultry -- symptomless

Thus spake Jill <news@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>

"Charles Francis" <charles@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:Ew3wJXF0GbEEFw4P@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Thus spake Jill <news@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
"This means out of every 100 birds in wet markets, one is positive
and infected with the virus. They look healthy but they can infect
others and they can kill people," Guan told Reuters on Friday.
<snipped for brevity >

But this is not news - mortality has always been put at around 90% If
anything one should have expected the figure in chickens and similarly
affected birds to have been higher!!!!

Yes, but this looks like a completely different picture. This is not a
new or rare disease but a widespread virus that occasionally mutates
into something nasty.


No

The H5N1 strain of Avian Influenza that is "doing the rounds" is a Highly
Pathogenic form - it is a new strain comparatively. ie - in the past 5-10
years and emerged in SE Asia and until very recently was confined to that
area. The LP form of this strain had been identified before that.

This is not the same as the Low Pathogenic strains of Avian Influenza that
are indeed widespread around the globe and every so often cause problems of
much lower mortality in commercial poultry flocks.
Continental Europe has had to deal with one of these for the past few years
every autumn migration.
These come in many forms from H1 - H9 with N1 - N9 and all the combinations
thereof. Most have only ever been transitory over the past centuries. Some
are more persistent around the globe and re-emerge at regular intervals. The
USA or Canada had a local "hit" only last year.

It is possible that there is also a Low Pathogenic form of H5N1 doing the
rounds but the genetics of it are different and if these scientists cannot
tell the difference then the whole study is invalidated as it is perfectly
possible to tell the difference between the various mutants of the HPAI
H5N1 - identifying a LP strain is definitely possible


It seems quite unlikely that the scientists did not know what they were
doing, more likely that they may have been misreported. Mostly these
things do not seem too well understood. New strains are just as likely
to be old strains previously undetected. They are not likely to do tests
or make accurate individual diagnoses unless people get ill, and it does
seem that hygeine standards have a bearing on that, as with other
diseases which used to be widespread.

I do not see how 1% infected birds showing no symptoms is consistent
with a disease which causes 90% mortality within days. It seems to me
there are three options: explain how this can be consistent, discredit
the study, or to take on board the possibility that previous data has
been misinterpreted or misunderstood. According to a general
understanding of how science works, I would say the third is by far the
most likely.


Regards

--
Charles Francis
Please reply by name
.

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