Re: Big fall in firearm thefts in Australia since toughened up laws in 1996


"Trevor Wilson" <trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:5va24uF1lkm90U1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"Scout" <me4guns@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:HWFjj.129183$Ue3.36534@xxxxxxxxxxx

"Trevor Wilson" <trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:5v7vf3F1kj129U1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

<jfma@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:9huro3hhqc8919spau9vht3hvuuelcm3fp@xxxxxxxxxx
On Wed, 16 Jan 2008 14:24:48 +1100, "Trevor Wilson"
<trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


<jfma@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:vtlqo3p5ka3t646o5ado7h4ia0cnl69bsc@xxxxxxxxxx
On Wed, 16 Jan 2008 11:51:25 +1100, "Trevor Wilson"
<trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


<jfma@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:llkqo3hhra0hdbs5gcbpef8s43gg7brvtc@xxxxxxxxxx
On Wed, 16 Jan 2008 11:38:49 +1100, "Trevor Wilson"
<trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


<jfma@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:3hjqo391mol91vjbgfk4sc4vo22tkd80gp@xxxxxxxxxx
On Wed, 16 Jan 2008 11:07:41 +1100, "Trevor Wilson"
<trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


"Peter Franks" <none@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:Q6bjj.6474$M24.5169@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Trevor Wilson wrote:
"Peter Franks" <none@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:RB7jj.3578$HL1.1160@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Phil Smythe wrote:
Spurred by the Pt Arthur massacre of 1996 Australia
introduced
much
stricter and more uniform gun laws. Since that time gun use
in
crime
has fallen substantially. As well thefts of firearms have
also
declined sharply;

"An estimated 5,170 firearms were stolen in 1995/6,
decreasing to
3,138 in 1998/9. Five years later this had halved again to
1,470
in
2004/5, with a similar number ,1,445, in 2005/6."
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/rpp/82/rpp82.pdf

These numbers fly in the face of those who consistently
bleat
that
gun
restrictions will give criminals carte blanche to operate
unfettered.
What has happened to the /crime/ rate since 1996?

**Gun crimes have all fallen. The crime of mass murder,
committed
via
the
use of firearms has fallen most dramatically. From 11
instances in
the
10
years prior to 1996, to zero in the 11 years since.

Trevor Wilson

Not what I asked.

**Then re-ask your question, specifying which crimes you mean.
Gun
control
laws, for instance, have little effect on cheque fraud, drunk
driving,
knife
attacks, rape

Really?

**Yeah. Really.


I have shown you otherwise. You want me to beat you over the
head with it again? I have it stored right here on this very
computer.


I can show where concealed carry and the police training
women how to properly use guns nearly put a stop to rape in
Orlando
Florida.

**No, you cannot. You cannot show cause and effect.

Yes, I can. I have shown you before. It seems that you don't
learn very well.

**You cannot show cause and effect.
Yes, I can.

"From October 1966 to March 1967 the Orlando Police Department
trained more than 2500 women to use guns (Krug 1968), Organized in
response to demands from citizens worried about a sharp increase in
rape, this was an unusually large and highly publicized program. It
received several front page stories in the local daily newspaper, the
Orlando Sentinel, a co-sponsor of the program. An interrupted time
series analysis of Orlando crime trends showed that the rape rate
decreased by 88% in 1967, compared to 1966, a decrease far larger
than
in any previous 1-year period.....

A much smaller training program was conducted with only 138 people
from September through November 1967 by the Kansas City (Missouri)
police, in response to retail businessmen's concerns about store
robberies (U.S. Small Business Administration 1969,
pp253-6).....Whereas the frequency of robbery increased sharply from
1967 to 1968 by 35% in the rest of Missouri, 20% in the region and
30%
in the United States, it essentially leveled off in Kansas City and
declined by 13% in surrounding areas, even though robberies had been
increasing in the 5 years prior to the training program and continued
to decrease in 1968....

These two gun training episodes are not unique. They resemble
instances of crime drops following gun training programs elsewhere,
including decreases in grocery robberies in Detroit after a grocer's
organization began gun clinics, and decreases in retail robberies in
Highland Park, Michigan, attributed to "gun-toting merchants" (Krug
1968, p H571)."


**Lack of proof of cause and effect, duly noted.



88% decrease isn't cause and effect?


**It is not proof of cause and effect.

So Let's see. If we had a crime that occurred say, X number of times in a
period of time, and then later it occurs Y number of times. That isn't
cause and effect?

**Correct.


What do you know? I actually agree with you. Correlation does NOT imply
causality.

**Exactly.


So when you claim that your gun control laws reduced gun crimes or mass
murders. That isn't true since you can't show cause and effect.

**True (did I claim that?)

Yes, you did, or have you forgotten your list of so called 'facts' already?

However, the runs are on the board. Maybe the 1996 gun control laws did
nothing. They sure didn't make the situation any worse.

I accept your admission you have nothing to show that gun control has any
effect.

So why do you say they do?

"Gun control laws affect gun crimes"

Were you lying?

And since you only deal in facts backed by hard data, I take it that you
will no longer make any assertion or implication of causality where you
are unable to show hard data proving this cause and effect?

**Until anyone can provide a better explanation, no.

I see. So what you're telling me is that you don't deal in facts but
supposition and as long as the explanation seems good enough to you then
that's all you need to declare it to be so and make unfounded and
unsupported assertions concerning this "explanation".

So let me advance an explanation. The solar cycle. As we get more sun spots,
the gun crime rate in Australia goes down. Fits in just as well as some
arbitrary law.

Oh, i know, since 1996 global warming has become a popular subject. I bet
all that talk about global warming has caused your gun crime rate to
decrease because the criminals are all concerned about global warming and
are out there doing something about it.

Yea, I'm sure you will claim that those explanations aren't valid, but they
are just as valid as the one you are asserting, it's just these explanations
don't appeal to your bias and bigotry.


.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: FACE: self-defence
    ... to Jeffrey Snyder's 'A Nation of Cowards' ... Crime is not only a complete disavowal of the social ... fray of the Great American Gun War. ...
    (uk.politics.misc)
  • Crime theories and practice 2
    ... responsible member of society. ... If the crime under consideration is rape, there is some notable waffling on ... someone needs to inform the law enforcement ... we are brought into the fray of the Great American Gun War. ...
    (uk.politics.misc)
  • Re: Anti-Gun Democrats DEFEATED, Again - NINE (9) Pro-Gun Bills Advancing in Tennessee!
    ... Myths About Gun Control ... Myth No. 1: Guns cause crime. ... Gun control laws reduce crime. ... Guns are of little help in defending against criminals. ...
    (alt.politics)
  • Firearms are not the problem. People are.
    ... Let's take a look at people and firearms. ... Police blocking streets, imposed curfews, metal grates in the windows and doors, gangs and security guards, surveillance cameras and the yellow crime tape were and most likely are still a common way of life. ... The story offers a complex picture of the psychological reasons behind it but it goes back to guns as an issue although gun crime in Switzerland is rare. ... Good fences makes for good neighbours and the criminals knows that. ...
    (alt.politics)
  • Re: SOLID PROOF that banning guns increases violent crime
    ... Policing reduces crime, ... response to retail businessmen's concerns about store robberies (U.S. ... training program and continued to decrease in 1968.... ... These two gun training episodes are not unique. ...
    (talk.politics.guns)