Re: Increased gun crime in Britain

RD (The Sandman) wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:46e9d9bf$0$16301$88260bb3@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

RD (The Sandman) wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:46e858c2$0$4189$88260bb3@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

While true, look at the scenario. It is a strange area....most
likely you have no idea where the nearest police station is. You
don't look for a phone booth as your first instinct is to get the
hell out of Dodge as soon as you can. Once out, there is no longer
any need to involve the police, particularly in parts of the US
which frown on anyone carrying a gun. Why should you recieve more
grief than the attempted muggers ever would?
**I dunno about you, but I like to see my society as a peaceful, crime-free one. I will and have stood up and testified to police
about criminal acts I witness. I have no problems in doing so and,
frankly, have big problems with people who do not.
I have done so also. I have also not reported some stuff since I
felt it would be bigger hassle for me than it would for the perps
even if they were caught.
**Of course. Sometimes it makes more sense to just let someone know they've done the wrong thing. However, an assault is not a minor infraction. Violent offenders need to be removed form society. Keeping
quiet does not achieve this laudable goal.

Let me ask you flat out, Trevor. If you were carrying a gun for self defense (I know, it would never happen in Oz and you would never break the law) and you ended up the victim in an attempted mugging. Would you call the police afterwards and report the attempted mugging?

**Of course.


How about
the fact that you stopped the mugging by pulling out a gun you carry for self defense even though the law in Oz doesn't allow that?

**I would not carry a gun for self defence, because it is not necessary, nor effective, nor legal. The question is nonsensical.


How about the
fact that you may not really have a good description or at least one that would pick those dudes out of a crowd?

**That is, indeed, a fact. People are very poor witnesses. Nevertheless, reporting crime makes sense. Non-reporting of crime, makes no sense.


Three, a woman is being raped. You stop and confront her
assailant with your firearm. He attacks you and you shoot him. He goes to the hospital and lives. Was that a DGU? Absolutely. Did the person die and get entered in the FBI database you refer
to? No, because there was no homicide. Was a police report
filed. Yes, because a GSW was involved.
**Which means the figures will be available on some official
database.
By law, doctors and hospitals report GSWs to the police. However,
there was no death so no entry into your FBI homicide data base.
**I understand that.

Other problems involve 'telescoping' or thinking an incident was
much more recent than it really was. Like something that
happened two or three years ago but your remember it as last
year.
**Indeed. This apears to be a significant problem with all the
surveys available to date.
And some, adjust for that.
**I've yet to see one.
You have to look and see how (if at all) they counted for other
factors or players in the study. Did they perform regressions? If
they did, what did they regress and how did they account for it.
**And ALL the surveys I've seen have serious problems.

Including Kellerman's.
FWIW, Trevor, to get a handle on the number of folks wounded
during a DGU compared to killed, one can get somewhat of an idea
by comparing the number of folks wounded by firearm to the number
of people killed by firearms. The ones involved in a DGU would
be somewhere in the same vicinity of percentages.
**That has been my contention. The usual figures imply an
approximate 5:1 or 6:1 ratio of wounding to death ratio in most US
shootings. It would seem appropriate to use this data in DGUs as
well. That provides us with a figure of apprximately 1,200.
Allowing for 'fudge factors' which include situations where the
gun is not used, a figure of 3,500 seems appropriate.
When you consider that no shots being fired occurs in over 95% of
the cases that would be a factor of 19 or 1200 X 19 = 22,800 which
would still be a very consrvative estimate. Remember that even the
NCVS (which never even asks about DGUs) comes up with 80 - 108,000.

**given that you have no evidence fo the 95% figure, I have to
question your conclusion.
It came from a survey. The actual number was 98%.
**Citing a survey can be quite different to real life.

Yes, although even you vary from real life from time to time if it agrees with you.

**We're discussing real life, not surveys.

Trevor Wilson

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