The Inevitable Collapse of China (pat 2)

Problem 1. Fast Deteriorating Environment and Scarce Resources

Just a few decades ago, when China was still stagnant in industrialization,
some Chinese brought up an explanation: "Western culture emphasizes in
conquering the nature, while Chinese culture seeks harmony with the nature".
Maybe Chinese culture changed a lot in a few decades, or maybe Chinese
finally master the skills to conquer the nature, today Chinese don't really
get along with the nature very harmoniously.



One side effect of the recent economy development is the loss of
agricultural land. In the book "Do you know the real China?" (temporary
translation, original title is "??????????????"), author Yamamoto Hideya
points out there are 670 thousand acres of land turn into desert annually in
China. There is already 27% of land in China is desert. The efforts to
save land are not a lot. But the forces to destroy land are abundant.
There are many economical activities that deforest land. But the worst may
be the city development that converts lots of farm land into industrial or
residential use in a speed unseen in human history. The farm land under
conversion is often more fertile and supports local regions. China used to
be able to feed its own people (one of the few accomplishments by Chinese
Communists). But not anymore. For a nation that has the most farmers (with
strict definition of farmers, there are about 250 millions. Please refer to
http://www.mengjimin.cn/m2.htm) in the world, that is quite a phenomenon.
As we will see later, the land conversion doesn't just cause
environment/resource problem, it also plays a big role in corruption and
society tension.



The earth deterioration problem doesn't stop on land. Because of the
deforestation, China is losing large areas of farmable land to desert, which
in turn creates lots of sand storms. Beijing is often under the attacks of
sand storms. These days the sand storms occur so often sometimes they go
beyond Chinese borders and affect its neighboring nations such as Japan,
Korea and Taiwan.



But sand storm isn't the only air problem China has. Coal is a major energy
source for China. Chinese coal is of low quality and most houses or
factories don't have good filtering system to handle the soot and the sulfur
oxide from burning coals. The air quality of most Chinese big cities is at
best unhealthy. Many Chinese city children suffer respiration problems.



Earth and air don't look good. The water is not very well either. Lack of
environmental laws and ignorance to laws, plus the lack of environment
sense, prompt manufacturers dumping un-processed waste water into rivers and
lakes without restraint. In a March 16, 2005 report by United News Network,
there is 3 tons of waste water dumping into Yang-Tzi River in every second.
The annual quantity is 360 millions tons (the numbers don't add-up. Here I
just quote the numbers from UNN. If we take the number of 3 tons per
second, we will get 94.6 millions tons per year, still an alarming huge
number). The garbage is dumping into rivers too. In some cases, the
garbage piles up to 4 meter (12 feet) high on the water gate. The water is
so toxic that there are only 52 marine life species left in Yang-Tzi River
in year 2002, comparing to 126 species in 1985. More than half went
distinct in 7 years. In April 2005, there was a riot involves tens of
thousands people in Southeast China. The riot was from farmers protesting
the factories along the river dump so much waste water that their crops and
fish farming was all lost. By the way, we have to know that, these wastes
don't stay in China. They get into the ocean and go all over the world with
the currents.



The fire (energy) situation doesn't look promising either. In fact, it is
alarming. In the past few years the factories in China face severe
electricity shortage problem. There are days many factories in GuangDong
operate only 2 days a week because of the electricity shortage. Only very
big factories or privileged factories are not affected by the electricity
ration. The situation gets worse in summer time or when there is draught
(Southern China relies more on hydro power.) Northern China is not better.
It has less rivers and doesn't have much hydro power.



Petroleum is another serious problem. China is the 2nd largest petroleum
import country in the world. And its appetite is growing very fast. The
world production of oil just can't keep up with Chinese demand. But if
China can't get enough oil to keep up its economy growth rate, its people
won't tolerate the highly corruptive government (while some people believe
the high economy growth of China will help it go through all the troubles it
has, we'll see how impractical that faith is very soon). China already see
more than 74 thousands protests/confrontations last year. Nobody knows
which confrontation may run out of control and turn into a revolution (as I
write this, there comes a report on a deadly confrontation in GuangDong on
December 6). Chinese government knows the dire situation of the slow growth
very well. The huge thirst of oil will inevitably bring up tension with
other needing countries as well. But Chinese government is determined to do
anything to keep the oil coming into China. One high level officer once
said: "in order to pump oil, we will have to fight wars." (In Chinese
"pump" and "fight" are the same word.)



So all four elements don't look very promising. But the environmental
problems also point to one particular resource problem. For thousands of
years, almost all Chinese dynasties were overthrown when there was famine.
When millions of people are starving, they just become millions of mobs. No
government on earth can quell tens of millions of mobs. Thanks to the
agriculture revolution, the Chinese communists so far did a very good job to
feed its people. In PROC's 56 years' existence, there was only one famine
that killed more than 20 millions people. Though it sounded terrible to
most nations, for Chinese history standard, that (only 1 famine in more than
half a century) is already quite a great achievement(though the real
contribution is from foreign technologies). The question is: can Chinese
government keep feeding its people?



China started to import food for a few years. Its economy advancement is
much more than enough to pay the imported food. But the global warming is
bringing dramatic climate changes to earth. There are many more severe
draughts, floods, heat waves, hurricanes and blizzards. It is quite
possible that some unfortunate weather disasters may bring big loss to the
world's food production. When the food shortage is serious, China may not
be able to import all the food it needs. And if the food price is high,
many Chinese won't be able to pay for it (in Chinese inland provinces, many
people still make less than $1,000 a year.) When a big famine strikes, can
this already fragile and full-of-problems Chinese government handle it? If
not, can it survive the disaster?




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Relevant Pages

  • NYT: As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes
    ... As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes ... Chinese cities often seem wrapped in a toxic gray shroud. ... protecting the environment. ...
    (soc.culture.china)
  • Re: "From the sky shall come the great king of terror"
    ... makes me wonder why china is afraid of christianity? ... Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission President Richard Land told the SBC ... The USCIRF delegation had meetings in the Chinese ... "Yet the government continues to define what constitutes a religion. ...
    (alt.gathering.rainbow)
  • Re: The mongol khanate want lebensraum in USA Canada and Australia, and plans on attacking within 5&
    ... If this speech is accurate, then stop giving China high technology, and stop allowing China to develop a trade surplus with America. ... Their contacts within the military see this speech and military plan as a disaster waiting to happen for their country and felt that preserving the lives of a Billion Chinese would be best protected if this was leaked. ... In answering the question, "Will you shoot at women, children and prisoners of war," more than 80 percent of the respondents answered in the affirmative, ...
    (soc.culture.german)
  • Chna needs living space
    ... Chinese Defense Minister Gives Speech About WAR plans against the United ... Turner Show via covert means through contacts in Shanghai, China. ... clearly it is the U.S. As evidenced by this speech, China's leadership is ...
    (alt.politics)
  • Sizing up the dragons miracle
    ... and Chinese workers of whom hundreds lost their lives to avalanches, accidents, ... and illness during the construction. ... Similar historical devastation follow the building of the Trans-Siberian Railway ... China and the Sea of Japan etc. ...
    (soc.culture.malaysia)